Virginia Tech vs. Georgia Tech: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
VTTeam statsGT
- Q4 4:58VTJa'Ricous Hairston 3 Yd pass from Kyron Drones (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)20–35
- Q4 11:54GTHaynes King 26 Yd Run (Aidan Birr Kick)14–35
- Q3 8:23GTMalachi Hosley 15 Yd Run (Aidan Birr Kick)14–28
- Q3 11:34VTJa'Ricous Hairston 33 Yd pass from Kyron Drones (John Love Kick)14–21
- Q2 0:04GTAidan Birr 30 Yd Field Goal 7–21
- Q2 2:52VTKyron Drones 32 Yd Run (John Love Kick)7–18
- Q2 9:01GTAidan Birr 25 Yd Field Goal 0–18
- Q1 4:34GTMalik Rutherford 9 Yd pass from Haynes King (Aidan Birr Kick)0–15
- Q1 10:53GTHaynes King 2 Yd Run (Haynes King Pass to Malik Rutherford for Two-Point Conversion)0–8
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- VT played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and GT did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.3 vs 3rd & 6.2
- PassKyron Drones 13/21, 181 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushKyron Drones 16 CAR, 83 YDS, 1 TD
- RecAyden Greene 4 REC, 72 YDS
- PassHaynes King 20/24, 213 YDS, 1 TD
- RushMalachi Hosley 11 CAR, 129 YDS, 1 TD
- RecMalik Rutherford 6 REC, 49 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsGT up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 10:53GT +16%
Haynes King 2 Yd Run (Haynes King Pass to Malik Rutherford for Two-Point Conversion)
- Q1 4:34GT +9%
Haynes King pass complete to Malik Rutherford for 9 yds for a TD (Aidan Birr KICK)
- Q2 2:52VT +8%
Kyron Drones run for 32 yds for a TD (John Love KICK)
- Q3 12:22VT +5%
Terion Stewart run for 15 yds to the GT 34 for a 1ST down
FAQ
What was the final score of Virginia Tech vs. Georgia Tech?
Virginia Tech 20, Georgia Tech 35.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (GT) was correct.
| VT | GT | |
|---|---|---|
| 367 | Total yards | 481 |
| 181 | Passing yards | 213 |
| 186 | Rushing yards | 268 |
| 20 | First downs | 28 |
| 0-8 | 3rd down | 7-12 |
| 3-4 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 13/21 | Comp/Att | 20/24 |
| 8.6 | Yards per pass | 8.9 |
| 5.5 | Yards per rush | 6.4 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 10-82 | Penalties | 6-70 |
| 28:06 | Possession | 31:54 |
Costliest call
Q2 9:01 GT field goal on 4th & 2 at VT 7. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.61 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:58VTJa'Ricous Hairston 3 Yd pass from Kyron Drones (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)20–35
- Q4 11:54GTHaynes King 26 Yd Run (Aidan Birr Kick)14–35
- Q3 8:23GTMalachi Hosley 15 Yd Run (Aidan Birr Kick)14–28
- Q3 11:34VTJa'Ricous Hairston 33 Yd pass from Kyron Drones (John Love Kick)14–21
- Q2 0:04GTAidan Birr 30 Yd Field Goal 7–21
- Q2 2:52VTKyron Drones 32 Yd Run (John Love Kick)7–18
- Q2 9:01GTAidan Birr 25 Yd Field Goal 0–18
- Q1 4:34GTMalik Rutherford 9 Yd pass from Haynes King (Aidan Birr Kick)0–15
- Q1 10:53GTHaynes King 2 Yd Run (Haynes King Pass to Malik Rutherford for Two-Point Conversion)0–8
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (GT Elo 1568, VT Elo 1439 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects GT -7.6 (70% to win) — 6.4 points clear of VT's market line of -14. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesVirginia Tech leads 12–9 · 48% have been one-possession games
| VT | GT | |
|---|---|---|
| -9.5 (#94) | CORE overall | +10.6 (#38) |
| -0 / +9 | offense / defense | +13 / +3 |
| 1.85 | points / drive | 2.86 |
| 3.19 | allowed / drive | 2.39 |
| 24% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| -9 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →