Bobby Dodd StadiumConference gameClosing line: GT -14 · GT covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VT | 0 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 20 |
| GT | 15 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 35 |
Team stats
VTthis game · better side highlightedGT
369
Total yards
483181
Passing yards
213188
Rushing yards
27020
First downs
280-8 · 0%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
GT 1568
VT 1439
Projected spread
GT -7.6
incl. home edge
Model pick
GT
71% to win
Market spread
GT -14
sportsbook line
Model edge
VT
6.4 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
71%
GT · market 82%
Our model blends Elo ratings (GT Elo 1568, VT Elo 1439) plus home-field advantage. That projects GT -7.6 (71% to win) — 6.4 points of value on VT versus the market line of -14.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
GT (top)VT (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: GT 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- VT pass offense (0.15 PPA) vs. GT pass defense (0.29 allowed) — edge GT.
- VT rush offense (0.20 PPA) vs. GT rush defense (0.11 allowed) — edge VT.
- GT rush offense (0.19 PPA) vs. VT rush defense (0.18 allowed) — edge GT.
Drive-by-drive
VT 3/10 scoring drives← own end zone →GT 6/10 scoring drives
GTTD9 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q1
VTPUNT6 pl, 12 yds· own 13Q1
GTTD6 pl, 38 yds· opp 38Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
GT up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
94%
GT went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Virginia Tech vs. Georgia Tech?
Virginia Tech 20, Georgia Tech 35.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (GT) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had GT pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.