UTSA vs. Temple: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UTSATeam statsTEM
- Q4 1:56TEMCarl Hardin 36 Yd Field Goal 21–27
- Q3 1:30TEMPeter Clarke 15 Yd pass from Evan Simon (Carl Hardin Kick)21–24
- Q3 5:28UTSADevin McCuin 18 Yd pass from Owen McCown (Michael Petro Kick)21–17
- Q3 7:24TEMHunter Smith 54 Yd Run (Carl Hardin Kick)14–17
- Q3 9:03TEMJoJo Bermudez 8 Yd pass from Evan Simon (Carl Hardin Kick)14–10
- Q2 7:21UTSAPatrick Overmyer 7 Yd pass from Owen McCown (Michael Petro Kick)14–3
- Q1 5:53TEMCarl Hardin 31 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 8:44UTSAPatrick Overmyer 1 Yd Run (Michael Petro Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- TEM lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 14% explosive on a 31% success rate
- PassOwen McCown 25/37, 234 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- RushRobert Henry Jr. 12 CAR, 42 YDS
- RecAJ Wilson 3 REC, 67 YDS
- PassEvan Simon 15/24, 180 YDS, 2 TD
- RushHunter Smith 8 CAR, 74 YDS, 1 TD
- RecPeter Clarke 4 REC, 82 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTEM up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,437 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 12:49UTSA +20%
Dante Atton punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Elliott Brow at the TEM 46
- Q3 9:03TEM +16%
Evan Simon pass complete to JoJo Bermudez for 8 yds for a TD (Carl Hardin KICK)
- Q1 8:44UTSA +13%
Patrick Overmyer run for 1 yd for a TD (Michael Petro KICK)
- Q2 7:21UTSA +12%
Owen McCown pass complete to Patrick Overmyer for 7 yds for a TD (Michael Petro KICK)
- Q1 5:53TEM +6%
Carl Hardin 31 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of UTSA vs. Temple?
UTSA 21, Temple 27.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UTSA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| UTSA | TEM | |
|---|---|---|
| 304 | Total yards | 309 |
| 234 | Passing yards | 180 |
| 70 | Rushing yards | 129 |
| 19 | First downs | 15 |
| 4-12 | 3rd down | 6-15 |
| 1-3 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 25/37 | Comp/Att | 15/24 |
| 6.3 | Yards per pass | 7.5 |
| 2.3 | Yards per rush | 3.9 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 9-83 | Penalties | 6-52 |
| 32:19 | Possession | 27:41 |
Costliest call
Q2 0:50 TEM punt on 4th & 1 at TEM 43. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.15 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:56TEMCarl Hardin 36 Yd Field Goal 21–27
- Q3 1:30TEMPeter Clarke 15 Yd pass from Evan Simon (Carl Hardin Kick)21–24
- Q3 5:28UTSADevin McCuin 18 Yd pass from Owen McCown (Michael Petro Kick)21–17
- Q3 7:24TEMHunter Smith 54 Yd Run (Carl Hardin Kick)14–17
- Q3 9:03TEMJoJo Bermudez 8 Yd pass from Evan Simon (Carl Hardin Kick)14–10
- Q2 7:21UTSAPatrick Overmyer 7 Yd pass from Owen McCown (Michael Petro Kick)14–3
- Q1 5:53TEMCarl Hardin 31 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 8:44UTSAPatrick Overmyer 1 Yd Run (Michael Petro Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TEM Elo 1205, UTSA Elo 1494 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TEM +9.2 (28% to win) — 2.7 points clear of UTSA's market line of +6.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| UTSA | TEM | |
|---|---|---|
| +4.7 (#58) | CORE overall | -11.9 (#100) |
| +3 / -2 | offense / defense | -3 / +9 |
| 2.63 | points / drive | 2.16 |
| 1.99 | allowed / drive | 3.17 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 29% |
| +5 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →