UTSA
2-2·American Athletic· Elo 1494
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTSA | 7 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 21 |
| TEM | 3 | 0 | 21 | 3 | 27 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (TEM Elo 1205, UTSA Elo 1494) plus home-field advantage. That projects TEM +9.2 (25% to win) — 2.7 points of value on UTSA versus the market line of +6.5.
TEM up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,437 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
UTSA 21, Temple 27.
No — the model picked UTSA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had UTSA pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
Owen McCown pass intercepted Avery Powell return for no gain to the TEM 13
Evan Simon pass complete to Peter Clarke for 36 yds to the UTSA 37 for a 1ST down
Evan Simon pass complete to JoJo Bermudez for 8 yds for a TD (Carl Hardin KICK)
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