Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WKUTeam statsSHSU
- Q4 9:31WKUCaden Veltkamp 19 Yd Run (Lucas Carneiro Kick)31–14
- Q4 11:45WKUK.D. Hutchinson 74 Yd pass from Caden Veltkamp (Lucas Carneiro Kick)24–14
- Q2 2:59WKUElijah Young 11 Yd pass from Caden Veltkamp (Lucas Carneiro Kick)17–14
- Q2 8:46SHSUMichael Phoenix II 50 Yd pass from Hunter Watson (Christian Pavon Kick)10–14
- Q2 10:41WKULucas Carneiro 51 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q2 14:50SHSUSimeon Evans 37 Yd pass from Hunter Watson (Christian Pavon Kick)7–7
- Q1 12:20WKURiver Helms 17 Yd pass from Caden Veltkamp (Lucas Carneiro Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassCaden Veltkamp 20/29, 281 YDS, 3 TD
- RushElijah Young 23 CAR, 97 YDS
- RecK.D. Hutchinson 3 REC, 88 YDS, 1 TD
- PassHunter Watson 6/9, 128 YDS, 2 TD
- RushDJ McKinney 10 CAR, 45 YDS
- RecSimeon Evans 5 REC, 59 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsWKU up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,455 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 11:45WKU +25%
K.D. Hutchinson 74 Yd pass from Caden Veltkamp (Lucas Carneiro Kick)
- Q2 2:59WKU +23%
Elijah Young 11 Yd pass from Caden Veltkamp (Lucas Carneiro Kick)
- Q2 8:46SHSU +21%
Michael Phoenix II 50 Yd pass from Hunter Watson (Christian Pavon Kick)
- Q2 14:50SHSU +20%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Simeon Evans for 37 yds for a TD (Christian Pavon KICK)
- Q1 12:20WKU +18%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to River Helms for 17 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)
- Q4 13:05WKU +13%
Elijah Young run for 1 yd to the WKU 21
FAQ
What was the final score of Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston?
Western Kentucky 31, Sam Houston 14.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked SHSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| WKU | SHSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 411 | Total yards | 400 |
| 281 | Passing yards | 235 |
| 130 | Rushing yards | 165 |
| 23 | First downs | 22 |
| 11-18 | 3rd down | 6-15 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 20/30 | Comp/Att | 19/32 |
| 9.4 | Yards per pass | 7.3 |
| 3.2 | Yards per rush | 4.3 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 4-35 | Penalties | 5-55 |
| 29:45 | Possession | 30:15 |
Costliest call
Q4 6:10 SHSU go for it on 4th & 5 at SHSU 19. The model preferred punt, a gap of 0.41 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 9:31WKUCaden Veltkamp 19 Yd Run (Lucas Carneiro Kick)31–14
- Q4 11:45WKUK.D. Hutchinson 74 Yd pass from Caden Veltkamp (Lucas Carneiro Kick)24–14
- Q2 2:59WKUElijah Young 11 Yd pass from Caden Veltkamp (Lucas Carneiro Kick)17–14
- Q2 8:46SHSUMichael Phoenix II 50 Yd pass from Hunter Watson (Christian Pavon Kick)10–14
- Q2 10:41WKULucas Carneiro 51 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q2 14:50SHSUSimeon Evans 37 Yd pass from Hunter Watson (Christian Pavon Kick)7–7
- Q1 12:20WKURiver Helms 17 Yd pass from Caden Veltkamp (Lucas Carneiro Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (SHSU Elo 1464, WKU Elo 1454 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects SHSU -2.8 (59% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2024
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| WKU | SHSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -10.7 (#100) | CORE overall | -4.3 (#82) |
| -1 / +10 | offense / defense | -8 / -3 |
| 2.23 | points / drive | 1.99 |
| 2.40 | allowed / drive | 1.57 |
| 31% | three-and-outs | 31% |
| +5 | pass over expected | -3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →