North Texas vs. Navy: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UNTTeam statsNAVY
- Q4 5:23UNTAyo Adeyi 47 Yd Run (Noah Rauschenberg Kick)24–27
- Q4 7:07NAVYAlex Tecza 21 Yd Run (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)17–27
- Q4 13:01UNTJa'Mori Maclin 18 Yd pass from Chandler Rogers (Noah Rauschenberg Kick)17–20
- Q3 8:26NAVYAnton Hall Jr. 1 Yd Run (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)10–20
- Q2 0:43NAVYNathan Kent 26 Yd pass from Tai Lavatai (Nathan Kirkwood PAT failed)10–13
- Q2 2:42UNTChandler Rogers 75 Yd Run (Noah Rauschenberg Kick)10–7
- Q2 7:18NAVYAlex Tecza 39 Yd Run (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)3–7
- Q1 2:43UNTNoah Rauschenberg 42 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- UNT played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and NAVY did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.6 vs 3rd & 5.5
- PassChandler Rogers 22/32, 267 YDS, 1 TD
- RushAyo Adeyi 14 CAR, 125 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJa'Mori Maclin 6 REC, 76 YDS, 1 TD
- PassTai Lavatai 4/8, 75 YDS, 1 TD
- RushAlex Tecza 17 CAR, 137 YDS, 2 TD
- RecBrandon Chatman 1 REC, 38 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsNAVY up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,138 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 7:07NAVY +34%
Alex Tecza run for 21 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)
- Q4 5:23UNT +30%
Ayo Adeyi run for 47 yds for a TD (Noah Rauschenberg KICK)
- Q4 13:01UNT +26%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Ja'Mori Maclin for 18 yds for a TD (Noah Rauschenberg KICK)
- Q4 1:58UNT +25%
Chandler Rogers sacked by Andrew Duhart for a loss of 7 yards to the UNT 13
- Q2 2:42UNT +23%
Chandler Rogers run for 75 yds for a TD (Noah Rauschenberg KICK)
- Q4 1:04NAVY +23%
[NH] Kneel down by NAV at UNT22 (team loss of 2)
FAQ
What was the final score of North Texas vs. Navy?
North Texas 24, Navy 27.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (NAVY) was correct.
| UNT | NAVY | |
|---|---|---|
| 473 | Total yards | 406 |
| 267 | Passing yards | 75 |
| 206 | Rushing yards | 331 |
| 23 | First downs | 21 |
| 2-11 | 3rd down | 4-12 |
| 3-5 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 22/33 | Comp/Att | 4/10 |
| 8.1 | Yards per pass | 7.5 |
| 5.7 | Yards per rush | 5.7 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 0-0 | Penalties | 7-41 |
| 26:05 | Possession | 33:55 |
Costliest call
Q4 7:07 UNT go for it on 4th & 10 at UNT 27. The model preferred punt, a gap of 0.93 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:23UNTAyo Adeyi 47 Yd Run (Noah Rauschenberg Kick)24–27
- Q4 7:07NAVYAlex Tecza 21 Yd Run (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)17–27
- Q4 13:01UNTJa'Mori Maclin 18 Yd pass from Chandler Rogers (Noah Rauschenberg Kick)17–20
- Q3 8:26NAVYAnton Hall Jr. 1 Yd Run (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)10–20
- Q2 0:43NAVYNathan Kent 26 Yd pass from Tai Lavatai (Nathan Kirkwood PAT failed)10–13
- Q2 2:42UNTChandler Rogers 75 Yd Run (Noah Rauschenberg Kick)10–7
- Q2 7:18NAVYAlex Tecza 39 Yd Run (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)3–7
- Q1 2:43UNTNoah Rauschenberg 42 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (NAVY Elo 1347, UNT Elo 1328 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects NAVY -3.2 (60% to win) — 3.3 points clear of UNT's market line of -6.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| UNT | NAVY | |
|---|---|---|
| -13.4 (#104) | CORE overall | -16.9 (#116) |
| +3 / +16 | offense / defense | -15 / +2 |
| 2.84 | points / drive | 1.30 |
| 3.15 | allowed / drive | 1.78 |
| 19% | three-and-outs | 38% |
| +5 | pass over expected | -21 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →