Texas Southern vs. Southern: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Texas Southern0-2

0017

Southern4-3

▸0023

Final/OT

Ace W. Mumford StadiumConference game

	1	2	3	4	OT	T
TEXA	0	10	0	7	0	17
SOUT	0	7	0	10	6	23

TEXATeam statsSOUT

443Total yards201

140Pass58

303Rush143

26First downs11

6-133rd down3-13

3Turnovers2

37:08Possession22:52

Scoring plays

• OT 0:00SOUTKendric Rhymes 16 Yd Run 17–23
• Q4 0:08SOUTJoshua Griffin 54 Yd Field Goal 17–17
• Q4 5:50SOUTCkelby Givens 39 Yd Fumble Return (Joshua Griffin Kick)17–14
• Q4 9:51TEXAJace Wilson 10 Yd Run (Gustavo Romero Kick)17–7
• Q2 2:17TEXAJacorey Howard 10 Yd Run (Gustavo Romero Kick)10–7
• Q2 10:39SOUTKendric Rhymes 69 Yd Run (Joshua Griffin Kick)3–7
• Q2 11:29TEXAGustavo Romero 21 Yd Field Goal 3–0

How the model called it

Market line

SOUT −11

Against the number

TEXA covered

line SOUT −11

What the numbers say

• SOUT lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 12% explosive on a 30% success rate

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

SOUT 100%50%TEXA 100%

Kickoff161 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

SOUT (top)TEXA (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: SOUT 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

SOUT −11

Closing total

50.0

Model line

—

Actual result

TEXA 17 – 23 SOUT

Leaders

Texas Southern

• PassJace Wilson 16/23, 140 YDS, 1 INT
• RushLaDarius Owens 36 CAR, 244 YDS
• RecQuay Davis 5 REC, 45 YDS

Southern

• PassJR Blood 8/26, 58 YDS, 1 INT
• RushKendric Rhymes 11 CAR, 136 YDS, 2 TD
• RecColbey Washington 1 REC, 31 YDS

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

26.1sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

134

Points / snap

0.30

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

TEXA up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,454 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

61%

TEXA went on to win

A genuinely vulnerable lead — comebacks are common

Most comparable games

LMerrimack vs Holy Cross24-49LPurdue vs Fresno State35-39LRichmond vs Morgan State10-17WBoston College vs Holy Cross31-28LNorth Texas vs Florida International39-48

Fourth downs

16 calls

SOUT gave up 0.7 points to the model on fourth down.TEXA 5/6 · SOUT 5/8 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Texas Southern vs. Southern?

Texas Southern 17, Southern 23.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (SOUT) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

TEXA

SOUT

47%

Success rate

30%

-0.07

EPA / pass

-0.49

0.18

EPA / rush

0.26

48%

Early-down success

29%

48%

Pass success

19%

46%

Rush success

42%

14%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

12%

25%

Stuffed rush rate

19%

33%

Pass rate

54%

9.0

Avg 3rd-down distance

8.0

TEXA

9.0 yards to go on 3rd down

77 scrimmage snaps

SOUT

8.0 yards to go on 3rd down

57 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

TEXA		SOUT
443	Total yards	201
140	Passing yards	58
303	Rushing yards	143
26	First downs	11
6-13	3rd down	3-13
0-2	4th down	1-3
16/23	Comp/Att	8/26
6.1	Yards per pass	2.2
5.6	Yards per rush	4.6
3	Turnovers	2
16-143	Penalties	7-64
37:08	Possession	22:52

Fourth downs

16 calls

TEXA

5/6 with the model

−0.2 pts · −0.0% win prob

SOUT

5/8 with the model

−0.7 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q3 9:51 SOUT punt on 4th & 2 at SOUT 19. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.43 points.

Every call, priced (16)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

TEXA 4/14 scoring drives← own end zone →SOUT 3/13 scoring drives

TEXAFUM2 pl, 15 yds· own 25Q1

SOUTDOWNS4 pl, 2 yds· opp 38Q1

TEXADOWNS5 pl, 0 yds· own 36Q1

SOUTPUNT3 pl, -13 yds· opp 36Q1

TEXAPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 20Q1

SOUTMISS9 pl, 47 yds· own 30Q1

TEXAFG14 pl, 66 yds· own 23Q1

TEXAMISS4 pl, 42 yds· own 29Q1

SOUTTD3 pl, 25 yds· opp 25Q1

SOUTTD2 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q2

TEXAPUNT6 pl, 25 yds· own 20Q2

SOUTPUNT6 pl, 17 yds· own 10Q2

TEXATD8 pl, 90 yds· own 10Q2

SOUTDOWNS7 pl, 20 yds· own 38Q2

SOUTFUM2 pl, 0 yds· own 40Q3

TEXAINT6 pl, 37 yds· opp 43Q3

SOUTPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 11Q3

TEXADOWNS11 pl, 50 yds· own 42Q3

SOUTPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 8Q3

TEXAPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 42Q3

SOUTPUNT7 pl, 11 yds· own 25Q3

TEXATD7 pl, 37 yds· opp 37Q4

SOUTINT2 pl, 2 yds· own 44Q4

TEXATD5 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q4

TEXAPUNT6 pl, 13 yds· own 25Q4

SOUTFG8 pl, 32 yds· own 28Q4

TEXAUncateg1 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q4

Scoring plays

• OT 0:00SOUTKendric Rhymes 16 Yd Run 17–23
• Q4 0:08SOUTJoshua Griffin 54 Yd Field Goal 17–17
• Q4 5:50SOUTCkelby Givens 39 Yd Fumble Return (Joshua Griffin Kick)17–14
• Q4 9:51TEXAJace Wilson 10 Yd Run (Gustavo Romero Kick)17–7
• Q2 2:17TEXAJacorey Howard 10 Yd Run (Gustavo Romero Kick)10–7
• Q2 10:39SOUTKendric Rhymes 69 Yd Run (Joshua Griffin Kick)3–7
• Q2 11:29TEXAGustavo Romero 21 Yd Field Goal 3–0

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →