| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTEP | 0 | 7 | 17 | 0 | 24 |
| MOST | 10 | 14 | 0 | 14 | 38 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (MOST Elo 1358, UTEP Elo 1233) plus home-field advantage. That projects MOST -7.4 (71% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Tied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
UTEP 24, Missouri State 38.
Yes — the model's pick (MOST) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had MOST pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Ekow Taylor 0 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Carlos Arreola Kick)
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass complete short right to #15 T.Gardner caught at UTEP10, for 12 yards to the UTEP00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:09, 1ST DOWN #36 Y.Obeid kick attempt good (H: #25 S.McDonald, LS: #47 A.Kallas)
#2 S.Lawrence rush middle for 10 yards gain to the UTEP00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:43, 1ST DOWN #36 Y.Obeid kick attempt good (H: #25 S.McDonald, LS: #47 A.Kallas)
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