UTEP vs. Missouri State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UTEPTeam statsMOST
- Q4 3:12MOSTDash Luke 3 Yd pass from Jacob Clark (Yousef Obeid Kick)24–38
- Q4 11:09MOSTTristian Gardner 12 Yd pass from Jacob Clark (Yousef Obeid Kick)24–31
- Q3 2:15UTEPEkow Taylor 0 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Carlos Arreola Kick)24–24
- Q3 5:06UTEPSkyler Locklear 4 Yd Run (Carlos Arreola Kick)17–24
- Q3 9:52UTEPTanner Cragun 26 Yd Field Goal 10–24
- Q2 0:43MOSTJeron Askren 2 Yd pass from Jacob Clark (Yousef Obeid Kick)7–24
- Q2 1:56UTEPSkyler Locklear 1 Yd Run (Carlos Arreola Kick)7–17
- Q2 6:29MOSTJeron Askren 9 Yd pass from Jacob Clark (Yousef Obeid Kick)0–17
- Q1 2:15MOSTYousef Obeid 29 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 7:43MOSTShomari Lawrence 10 Yd Run (Yousef Obeid Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- MOST played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and UTEP did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.5 vs 3rd & 7.5
- PassSkyler Locklear 14/29, 125 YDS
- RushSkyler Locklear 16 CAR, 56 YDS, 2 TD
- RecEric Willis III 5 REC, 45 YDS
- PassJacob Clark 30/39, 330 YDS, 4 TD
- RushShomari Lawrence 25 CAR, 109 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJmariyae Robinson 7 REC, 88 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 11:09MOST +27%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass complete short right to #15 T.Gardner caught at UTEP10, for 12 yards to the UTEP00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q3 2:15UTEP +22%
Ekow Taylor 0 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Carlos Arreola Kick)
- Q1 7:43MOST +14%
#2 S.Lawrence rush middle for 10 yards gain to the UTEP00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q3 5:06UTEP +13%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 1:56UTEP +8%
#9 S.Locklear rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 6:29MOST +8%
#12 J.Clark pass complete short middle to #88 J.Askren caught at UTEP00, for 9 yards to the UTEP00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of UTEP vs. Missouri State?
UTEP 24, Missouri State 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MOST) was correct.
| UTEP | MOST | |
|---|---|---|
| 240 | Total yards | 436 |
| 125 | Passing yards | 330 |
| 115 | Rushing yards | 106 |
| 17 | First downs | 27 |
| 6-13 | 3rd down | 6-14 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 3-3 |
| 14/29 | Comp/Att | 30/39 |
| 4.3 | Yards per pass | 8.5 |
| 4.0 | Yards per rush | 2.7 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 7-74 | Penalties | 9-70 |
| 22:36 | Possession | 37:24 |
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:12MOSTDash Luke 3 Yd pass from Jacob Clark (Yousef Obeid Kick)24–38
- Q4 11:09MOSTTristian Gardner 12 Yd pass from Jacob Clark (Yousef Obeid Kick)24–31
- Q3 2:15UTEPEkow Taylor 0 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Carlos Arreola Kick)24–24
- Q3 5:06UTEPSkyler Locklear 4 Yd Run (Carlos Arreola Kick)17–24
- Q3 9:52UTEPTanner Cragun 26 Yd Field Goal 10–24
- Q2 0:43MOSTJeron Askren 2 Yd pass from Jacob Clark (Yousef Obeid Kick)7–24
- Q2 1:56UTEPSkyler Locklear 1 Yd Run (Carlos Arreola Kick)7–17
- Q2 6:29MOSTJeron Askren 9 Yd pass from Jacob Clark (Yousef Obeid Kick)0–17
- Q1 2:15MOSTYousef Obeid 29 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 7:43MOSTShomari Lawrence 10 Yd Run (Yousef Obeid Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MOST Elo 1358, UTEP Elo 1233 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MOST -7.4 (70% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| UTEP | MOST | |
|---|---|---|
| -26.7 (#131) | CORE overall | -9.3 (#92) |
| -26 / +1 | offense / defense | -0 / +9 |
| 1.32 | points / drive | 2.26 |
| 2.36 | allowed / drive | 2.55 |
| 32% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| -0 | pass over expected | +6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →