#2Shomari Lawrence

RB·Missouri State·2025

Shomari Lawrence is a Featured Back for Missouri State. Shomari's 2025 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 224 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Shomari Lawrence's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Rushing

1021 Rush yards7 Rush TD199 Carries5.1 Yards/carry

Receiving

19 Receptions118 Rec yards0 Rec TD6.2 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs RB peers

Efficiency0
Volume77
Explosiveness42
Consistency0
Receiving37

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency0th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Contributor

Rotational contributor. Smaller collective or local deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	@USC	L13-73	16.9	12	50	4.2	0	2	3	0	0.00
2	@Marshall	W21-20	-4.5	17	49	2.9	0	3	23	0	0.09
3	vsSMU	L10-28	13.4	13	44	3.4	0	3	18	0	-0.27
4	vsUT Martin	W42-10	—	8	65	8.1	1	—	—	—	0.33
5	vsWestern Kentucky	L22-27	1.6	16	78	4.9	1	—	—	—	-0.01
7	@Middle Tennessee	W22-20	-16.0	11	63	5.7	0	—	—	—	0.23
9	@New Mexico State	W24-17	-15.5	21	97	4.6	0	2	15	0	-0.04
10	vsFlorida International	W28-21	-10.5	14	104	7.4	2	1	7	0	0.33
11	@Liberty	W21-17	-9.0	13	48	3.7	0	1	11	0	-0.23
12	vsUTEP	W38-24	-17.5	25	109	4.4	1	2	6	0	0.01
13	@Kennesaw State	L34-41	-5.4	20	173	8.7	1	1	9	0	0.25
14	vsLouisiana Tech	L30-42	-1.3	13	84	6.5	1	2	9	0	-0.07
20	vsArkansas State	L28-34	-8.8	16	57	3.6	0	2	17	0	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

26.9%

Passing plays

5.5%

Rushing plays

55.4%

Standard downs

33.1%

Passing downs

15.7%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: -0.04
Passing downs: 0.26
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.26 / -0.01

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).