University Stadium (NM)Conference gameClosing line: UNM -3 · UNM covered
Sat, Oct 25, 7:00 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USU | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 14 |
| UNM | 7 | 19 | 0 | 7 | 33 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (UNM Elo 1401, USU Elo 1377) plus home-field advantage. That projects UNM -3.4 (60% to win), essentially in line with the market.
UNM up 19 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,041 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Utah State 14, New Mexico 33.
Yes — the model's pick (UNM) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had UNM pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(05:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Davis rush middle for 64 yards gain to the UNM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:51, 1ST DOWN #14 T.Rinker kick attempt good (H: #16 L.Rehkow, LS: #13 H.Hatch)
(13:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Barnes pass complete short middle to #11 B.Pegan caught at USU48, for 54 yards to the UNM13, out of bounds at UNM13, 1ST DOWN. #10 A.Garcia injured on the play
(05:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Barnes pass intercepted by #26 C.McBean at UNM00, Touchback
Team boards, recruiting & CFB talk — start a thread.
Open the boards →