Utah State vs. New Mexico: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
USUTeam statsUNM
- Q4 8:28UNMDamon Bankston 41 Yd Run (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)14–33
- Q4 12:49USUBraden Pegan 13 Yd pass from Bryson Barnes (Tanner Rinker Kick)14–26
- Q2 2:44UNMCade Keith 40 Yd pass from Jack Layne (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)7–26
- Q2 4:51USUMiles Davis 64 Yd Run (Tanner Rinker Kick)7–19
- Q2 5:59UNMLuke Drzewiecki 41 Yd Field Goal 0–19
- Q2 9:02UNMJaxton Eck Safety 0–16
- Q2 13:29UNMD.J. McKinney 1 Yd Run (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)0–14
- Q1 9:14UNMD.J. McKinney 49 Yd Punt Return (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- USU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and UNM did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.7 vs 3rd & 4.6
- PassBryson Barnes 13/23, 164 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushMiles Davis 10 CAR, 110 YDS, 1 TD
- RecBraden Pegan 5 REC, 108 YDS, 1 TD
- PassJack Layne 17/22, 183 YDS, 1 TD
- RushDamon Bankston 13 CAR, 84 YDS, 1 TD
- RecCade Keith 7 REC, 104 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUNM up 19 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,041 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 9:14UNM +16%
#16 L.Rehkow punt 46 yards to the USU49 #4 D.McKinney return 49 yards to the USU00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 13:29UNM +15%
Shotgun #4 D.McKinney rush middle for 1 yard gain to the USU00 TOUCHDOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner broke the plane". CALL UPHELD
- Q2 2:44UNM +10%
Shotgun #2 J.Layne pass complete short middle to #88 C.Keith caught at USU27, for 40 yards to the USU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 4:51USU +10%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Davis rush middle for 64 yards gain to the UNM00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q4 12:49USU +6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Barnes pass complete short middle to #11 B.Pegan caught at UNM00, for 13 yards to the UNM00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Utah State vs. New Mexico?
Utah State 14, New Mexico 33.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UNM) was correct.
| USU | UNM | |
|---|---|---|
| 306 | Total yards | 407 |
| 164 | Passing yards | 183 |
| 142 | Rushing yards | 224 |
| 15 | First downs | 21 |
| 4-10 | 3rd down | 4-12 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 13/23 | Comp/Att | 17/22 |
| 7.1 | Yards per pass | 8.3 |
| 5.7 | Yards per rush | 5.3 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 7-46 | Penalties | 7-65 |
| 21:44 | Possession | 38:16 |
Costliest call
Q2 0:52 USU punt on 4th & 4 at UNM 41. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.88 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 8:28UNMDamon Bankston 41 Yd Run (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)14–33
- Q4 12:49USUBraden Pegan 13 Yd pass from Bryson Barnes (Tanner Rinker Kick)14–26
- Q2 2:44UNMCade Keith 40 Yd pass from Jack Layne (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)7–26
- Q2 4:51USUMiles Davis 64 Yd Run (Tanner Rinker Kick)7–19
- Q2 5:59UNMLuke Drzewiecki 41 Yd Field Goal 0–19
- Q2 9:02UNMJaxton Eck Safety 0–16
- Q2 13:29UNMD.J. McKinney 1 Yd Run (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)0–14
- Q1 9:14UNMD.J. McKinney 49 Yd Punt Return (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UNM Elo 1401, USU Elo 1377 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UNM -3.4 (60% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesUtah State leads 17–15 · New Mexico has won 2 straight · 44% have been one-possession games
| USU | UNM | |
|---|---|---|
| -4.1 (#77) | CORE overall | +0.5 (#63) |
| -1 / +3 | offense / defense | -2 / -3 |
| 2.33 | points / drive | 2.50 |
| 2.43 | allowed / drive | 2.02 |
| 31% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| +4 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →