| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ULM | 14 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 31 |
| UTEP | 7 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 25 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (UTEP Elo 1248, ULM Elo 1116) plus home-field advantage. That projects UTEP -7.7 (72% to win) — 2.2 points of value on UTEP versus the market line of -5.5.
ULM up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 671 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
UL Monroe 31, UTEP 25.
No — the model picked UTEP, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had UTEP pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Trevon Tate for 73 yds for a TD (Carlos Arreola KICK)
Wondame Davis Jr. 44 Yd pass from Malachi Nelson (Malachi Nelson Pass to Hahsaun Wilson for Two-Point Conversion)
Dorian Lewis run for 72 yds to the UTEP 26 for a 1ST down
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