UL Monroe vs. Southern Miss: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ULMTeam statsUSM
- Q4 4:56USMJaylin Carter 27 Yd Run (Creighton Wilbanks Kick)21–49
- Q4 6:23ULMJulian Nixon 2 Yd Run (Jacob Chambliss Kick)21–42
- Q4 12:54USMBralon Brown 24 Yd pass from Braylon Braxton (Creighton Wilbanks Kick)14–42
- Q3 6:03USMCarl Chester 8 Yd pass from Braylon Braxton (Creighton Wilbanks Kick)14–35
- Q3 10:28USMMatt Jones 3 Yd Run (Creighton Wilbanks Kick)14–28
- Q2 2:47ULMZach Palmer-Smith 21 Yd Run (Jacob Chambliss Kick)14–21
- Q2 8:00USMTychaun Chapman 39 Yd pass from Braylon Braxton (Creighton Wilbanks Kick)7–21
- Q2 12:05USMKyirin Heath 34 Yd pass from Braylon Braxton (Creighton Wilbanks Kick)7–14
- Q1 5:13USMMatt Jones 4 Yd Run (Creighton Wilbanks Kick)7–7
- Q1 7:35ULMTyler Griffin 4 Yd pass from Landon Graves (Jacob Chambliss Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- ULM played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and USM did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.4 vs 3rd & 5.3
- PassLandon Graves 12/26, 103 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushZach Palmer-Smith 11 CAR, 111 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJonathan Bibbs 1 REC, 34 YDS
- PassBraylon Braxton 18/23, 248 YDS, 4 TD
- RushRobert Briggs 7 CAR, 55 YDS
- RecTychaun Chapman 3 REC, 83 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUSM up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 671 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of UL Monroe vs. Southern Miss?
UL Monroe 21, Southern Miss 49.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (USM) was correct.
| ULM | USM | |
|---|---|---|
| 312 | Total yards | 445 |
| 103 | Passing yards | 248 |
| 209 | Rushing yards | 197 |
| 22 | First downs | 21 |
| 9-16 | 3rd down | 5-11 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 12/26 | Comp/Att | 18/23 |
| 4.0 | Yards per pass | 10.8 |
| 5.2 | Yards per rush | 5.2 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 11-78 | Penalties | 4-56 |
| 34:57 | Possession | 25:03 |
Costliest call
Q3 3:33 USM punt on 4th & 8 at ULM 35. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 1.07 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:56USMJaylin Carter 27 Yd Run (Creighton Wilbanks Kick)21–49
- Q4 6:23ULMJulian Nixon 2 Yd Run (Jacob Chambliss Kick)21–42
- Q4 12:54USMBralon Brown 24 Yd pass from Braylon Braxton (Creighton Wilbanks Kick)14–42
- Q3 6:03USMCarl Chester 8 Yd pass from Braylon Braxton (Creighton Wilbanks Kick)14–35
- Q3 10:28USMMatt Jones 3 Yd Run (Creighton Wilbanks Kick)14–28
- Q2 2:47ULMZach Palmer-Smith 21 Yd Run (Jacob Chambliss Kick)14–21
- Q2 8:00USMTychaun Chapman 39 Yd pass from Braylon Braxton (Creighton Wilbanks Kick)7–21
- Q2 12:05USMKyirin Heath 34 Yd pass from Braylon Braxton (Creighton Wilbanks Kick)7–14
- Q1 5:13USMMatt Jones 4 Yd Run (Creighton Wilbanks Kick)7–7
- Q1 7:35ULMTyler Griffin 4 Yd pass from Landon Graves (Jacob Chambliss Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (USM Elo 1309, ULM Elo 1060 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects USM -12.4 (80% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesSouthern Miss leads 7–3 · 20% have been one-possession games
| ULM | USM | |
|---|---|---|
| -15.2 (#108) | CORE overall | -6.7 (#86) |
| -8 / +7 | offense / defense | -6 / +1 |
| 1.37 | points / drive | 2.09 |
| 2.91 | allowed / drive | 2.19 |
| 32% | three-and-outs | 25% |
| -8 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →