Sat, Oct 25, 7:30 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ULM | 7 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 21 |
| USM | 7 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 49 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (USM Elo 1309, ULM Elo 1060) plus home-field advantage. That projects USM -12.4 (82% to win), essentially in line with the market.
USM up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 671 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
UL Monroe 21, Southern Miss 49.
Yes — the model's pick (USM) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had USM pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
End of 2nd quarter.
(12:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 B.Braxton pass complete short middle to #88 K.Heath caught at ULM30, for 34 yards to the ULM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:05, 1ST DOWN #40 C.Wilbanks kick attempt good (H: #17 K.McCormick, LS: #46 L.Beard)
(03:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Graves pass complete short middle to #8 J.Bibbs caught at USM45, for 34 yards to the USM26 QB hurried by #5 J.Hawkins (#1 J.Moten), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY USM Face Mask declined USM Targeting (#5 J.Hawkins) 13 yards from USM26 to USM13, 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Targeting". CALL UPHELD. Southern Miss #5 J.Hawkins has been disqualified
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