M. M. Roberts StadiumConference gameClosing line: USM -14 · USM covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ULM | 7 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 21 |
| USM | 7 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 49 |
Team stats
ULMthis game · better side highlightedUSM
312
Total yards
445103
Passing yards
248209
Rushing yards
19722
First downs
219-16 · 56%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
USM 1309
ULM 1060
Projected spread
USM -12.4
incl. home edge
Model pick
USM
82% to win
Market spread
USM -14
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
82%
USM · market 81%
Our model blends Elo ratings (USM Elo 1309, ULM Elo 1060) plus home-field advantage. That projects USM -12.4 (82% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
USM (top)ULM (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: USM 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- ULM rush offense (0.05 PPA) vs. USM rush defense (0.14 allowed) — edge USM.
- ULM pass offense (0.21 PPA) vs. USM pass defense (0.13 allowed) — edge ULM.
- USM pass offense (0.28 PPA) vs. ULM pass defense (0.31 allowed) — edge ULM.
Drive-by-drive
ULM 3/11 scoring drives← own end zone →USM 7/12 scoring drives
ULMTD12 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
USMTD8 pl, 69 yds· own 31Q1
ULMMISS10 pl, 64 yds· own 25Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
USM up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 671 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
99%
USM went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of UL Monroe vs. Southern Miss?
UL Monroe 21, Southern Miss 49.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (USM) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had USM pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.