UConn
5-2·FBS Independents· Elo 1553
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | OT1 | OT2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CONN | 7 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 34 |
| RICE | 3 | 14 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 37 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (RICE Elo 1156, CONN Elo 1553) plus home-field advantage. That projects RICE +13.5 (16% to win) — 3.5 points of value on CONN versus the market line of +10.
CONN up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
UConn 34, Rice 37.
No — the model picked CONN, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had CONN pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
(11:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 Q.Jackson rush middle for 73 yards gain to the UCONN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:08, 1ST DOWN #28 E.Gota kick attempt good (H: #91 A.Bacchetta, LS: #48 W.Freeman)
(11:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Fagnano pass complete short middle to #1 S.Bell caught at UCONN31, for 80 yards to the Rice00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:05, 1ST DOWN #28 C.Freeman kick attempt good (H: #17 C.Stutz, LS: #47 Z.Christinat)
(01:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Jenkins pass complete deep left to #10 Q.Jackson caught at UCONN45, for 75 yards to the UCONN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:35, 1ST DOWN #28 E.Gota kick attempt good (H: #91 A.Bacchetta, LS: #48 W.Freeman)
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