UConn vs. Rice: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
CONNTeam statsRICE
- 2OT 0:00RICEQuinton Jackson 23 Yd Run 34–37
- 2OT 0:00CONNChris Freeman 41 Yd Field Goal 34–31
- OT 0:00CONNCam Edwards 5 Yd Run (Chris Freeman Kick)31–31
- OT 0:00RICEQ. Jackson run for 6 yds, for a TD (E. Gota KICK)24–31
- Q4 11:46RICED'Andre Hardeman Jr. 10 Yd Run (Enock Gota Kick)24–24
- Q3 6:06CONNChris Freeman 45 Yd Field Goal 24–17
- Q2 0:49CONNJuice Vereen 34 Yd pass from Joe Fagnano (Chris Freeman Kick)21–17
- Q2 1:35RICEQuinton Jackson 75 Yd pass from Chase Jenkins (Enock Gota Kick)14–17
- Q2 1:48CONNCam Edwards 12 Yd pass from Joe Fagnano (Chris Freeman Kick)14–10
- Q2 11:08RICEQuinton Jackson 73 Yd Run (Enock Gota Kick)7–10
- Q1 1:03RICEEnock Gota 38 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 11:05CONNSkyler Bell 80 Yd pass from Joe Fagnano (Chris Freeman Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- CONN lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 12% explosive on a 37% success rate
- PassJoe Fagnano 32/48, 344 YDS, 3 TD
- RushCam Edwards 16 CAR, 59 YDS, 1 TD
- RecSkyler Bell 8 REC, 158 YDS, 1 TD
- PassChase Jenkins 17/22, 191 YDS, 1 TD
- RushQuinton Jackson 21 CAR, 168 YDS, 3 TD
- RecQuinton Jackson 3 REC, 80 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsCONN up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- 2OT 0:00RICE +80%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 Q.Jackson rush middle for 23 yards gain to the UCONN00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- 2OT 0:00CONN +48%
No Huddle #2 J.Fagnano pass incomplete deep right to #6 R.Murphy thrown to Rice00
- 2OT 0:00RICE +43%
#28 C.Freeman field goal attempt from 41 yards GOOD
- Q4 11:46RICE +34%
No Huddle-Shotgun #27 D.Hardemann rush right for 10 yards gain to the UCONN00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- 2OT 0:00CONN +32%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 Q.Jackson rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UCONN23 (#55 V.Carroll-Jackson)
- Q2 1:35RICE +29%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Jenkins pass complete deep left to #10 Q.Jackson caught at UCONN45, for 75 yards to the UCONN00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of UConn vs. Rice?
UConn 34, Rice 37.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked CONN, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| CONN | RICE | |
|---|---|---|
| 449 | Total yards | 491 |
| 344 | Passing yards | 191 |
| 105 | Rushing yards | 300 |
| 18 | First downs | 20 |
| 5-17 | 3rd down | 6-18 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 32/48 | Comp/Att | 17/22 |
| 7.2 | Yards per pass | 8.7 |
| 4.0 | Yards per rush | 5.4 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 2-30 | Penalties | 1-5 |
| 27:32 | Possession | 32:28 |
Costliest call
Q4 0:52 RICE punt on 4th & 1 at RICE 37. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.93 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- 2OT 0:00RICEQuinton Jackson 23 Yd Run 34–37
- 2OT 0:00CONNChris Freeman 41 Yd Field Goal 34–31
- OT 0:00CONNCam Edwards 5 Yd Run (Chris Freeman Kick)31–31
- OT 0:00RICEQ. Jackson run for 6 yds, for a TD (E. Gota KICK)24–31
- Q4 11:46RICED'Andre Hardeman Jr. 10 Yd Run (Enock Gota Kick)24–24
- Q3 6:06CONNChris Freeman 45 Yd Field Goal 24–17
- Q2 0:49CONNJuice Vereen 34 Yd pass from Joe Fagnano (Chris Freeman Kick)21–17
- Q2 1:35RICEQuinton Jackson 75 Yd pass from Chase Jenkins (Enock Gota Kick)14–17
- Q2 1:48CONNCam Edwards 12 Yd pass from Joe Fagnano (Chris Freeman Kick)14–10
- Q2 11:08RICEQuinton Jackson 73 Yd Run (Enock Gota Kick)7–10
- Q1 1:03RICEEnock Gota 38 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 11:05CONNSkyler Bell 80 Yd pass from Joe Fagnano (Chris Freeman Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (RICE Elo 1156, CONN Elo 1553 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects RICE +13.5 (20% to win) — 3.5 points clear of CONN's market line of +10. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#83 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #40 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds.
The 2025 upset archive →| CONN | RICE | |
|---|---|---|
| -7.6 (#89) | CORE overall | -26.8 (#132) |
| +5 / +13 | offense / defense | -20 / +7 |
| 3.14 | points / drive | 1.40 |
| 2.55 | allowed / drive | 3.09 |
| 20% | three-and-outs | 38% |
| +7 | pass over expected | -24 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →