UConn
1-1·FBS Independents· Elo 1446
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CONN | 10 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 41 |
| DEL | 14 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 44 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (DEL Elo 1453, CONN Elo 1446) plus home-field advantage. That projects DEL -2.7 (58% to win) — 11.2 points of value on DEL versus the market line of +8.5.
DEL up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
UConn 41, Delaware 44.
Yes — the model's pick (DEL) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had DEL pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Kyre Duplessis for 68 yds for a TD (Nate Reed KICK)
Jo Silver run for 70 yds for a TD (Nate Reed KICK)
Cam Edwards run for 51 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK)
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