UConn vs. Delaware: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
CONNTeam statsDEL
- OT 0:00DELNick Minicucci 13 Yd Run 41–44
- OT 0:00CONNChris Freeman 24 Yd Field Goal 41–38
- Q4 0:00DELNate Reed 43 Yd Field Goal 38–38
- Q4 9:54CONNAlex Honig 1 Yd pass from Joe Fagnano (Chris Freeman Kick)38–35
- Q3 0:00DELJo Silver 18 Yd Run (Nate Reed Kick)31–35
- Q3 5:05CONNReymello Murphy 10 Yd pass from Joe Fagnano (Chris Freeman Kick)31–28
- Q2 5:55DELKyre Duplessis 68 Yd pass from Nick Minicucci (Nate Reed Kick)24–28
- Q2 7:17CONNCam Edwards 2 Yd Run (Chris Freeman Kick)24–21
- Q2 10:08CONNVictor Rosa 31 Yd Run (Chris Freeman Kick)17–21
- Q2 12:54DELNick Minicucci 5 Yd Run (Nate Reed Kick)10–21
- Q1 4:48CONNChris Freeman 28 Yd Field Goal 10–14
- Q1 8:06DELJo Silver 70 Yd Run (Nate Reed Kick)7–14
- Q1 8:48CONNCam Edwards 51 Yd Run (Chris Freeman Kick)7–7
- Q1 11:13DELNick Minicucci 3 Yd Run (Nate Reed Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassJoe Fagnano 28/38, 346 YDS, 2 TD
- RushCam Edwards 23 CAR, 116 YDS, 2 TD
- RecSkyler Bell 7 REC, 92 YDS
- PassNick Minicucci 23/34, 265 YDS, 1 TD
- RushJo Silver 15 CAR, 179 YDS, 2 TD
- RecKyre Duplessis 9 REC, 161 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsDEL up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 0:00DEL +40%
UConn Penalty, (Yards) declined
- Q4 9:54CONN +39%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Alex Honig for 1 yd for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK)
- Q4 2:10DEL +39%
No Huddle-Shotgun Minicucci,Nick pass incomplete short left to Kelly,Ja'Carree thrown to DEL29 PENALTY CONN Pass Interference (Chadwick,Cam) 9 yards from DEL23 to DEL3…
- Q4 0:00DEL +29%
Nate Reed 43 Yd Field Goal
- Q4 2:10CONN +29%
Nick Minicucci sacked by Bryun Parham for a loss of 9 yards to the DEL 13
- Q3 5:05CONN +29%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Reymello Murphy for 10 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of UConn vs. Delaware?
UConn 41, Delaware 44.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (DEL) was correct.
| CONN | DEL | |
|---|---|---|
| 521 | Total yards | 512 |
| 346 | Passing yards | 265 |
| 175 | Rushing yards | 247 |
| 29 | First downs | 29 |
| 5-13 | 3rd down | 6-15 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 3-3 |
| 28/39 | Comp/Att | 23/34 |
| 8.9 | Yards per pass | 7.8 |
| 5.5 | Yards per rush | 5.5 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 7-67 | Penalties | 6-60 |
| 27:35 | Possession | 32:25 |
Costliest call
Q3 11:01 DEL punt on 4th & 4 at CONN 44. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.71 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- OT 0:00DELNick Minicucci 13 Yd Run 41–44
- OT 0:00CONNChris Freeman 24 Yd Field Goal 41–38
- Q4 0:00DELNate Reed 43 Yd Field Goal 38–38
- Q4 9:54CONNAlex Honig 1 Yd pass from Joe Fagnano (Chris Freeman Kick)38–35
- Q3 0:00DELJo Silver 18 Yd Run (Nate Reed Kick)31–35
- Q3 5:05CONNReymello Murphy 10 Yd pass from Joe Fagnano (Chris Freeman Kick)31–28
- Q2 5:55DELKyre Duplessis 68 Yd pass from Nick Minicucci (Nate Reed Kick)24–28
- Q2 7:17CONNCam Edwards 2 Yd Run (Chris Freeman Kick)24–21
- Q2 10:08CONNVictor Rosa 31 Yd Run (Chris Freeman Kick)17–21
- Q2 12:54DELNick Minicucci 5 Yd Run (Nate Reed Kick)10–21
- Q1 4:48CONNChris Freeman 28 Yd Field Goal 10–14
- Q1 8:06DELJo Silver 70 Yd Run (Nate Reed Kick)7–14
- Q1 8:48CONNCam Edwards 51 Yd Run (Chris Freeman Kick)7–7
- Q1 11:13DELNick Minicucci 3 Yd Run (Nate Reed Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (DEL Elo 1453, CONN Elo 1446 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects DEL -2.7 (58% to win) — 11.2 points clear of DEL's market line of +8.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#92 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #49 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds.
The 2025 upset archive →| CONN | DEL | |
|---|---|---|
| -7.6 (#89) | CORE overall | -15.0 (#107) |
| +5 / +13 | offense / defense | -5 / +10 |
| 3.14 | points / drive | 2.26 |
| 2.55 | allowed / drive | 2.63 |
| 20% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| +7 | pass over expected | +10 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →