UCF
Big 12· Elo 1528
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UCF | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 9 |
| TTU | 14 | 24 | 10 | 0 | 48 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (TTU Elo 1937, UCF Elo 1528) plus home-field advantage. That projects TTU -18.8 (92% to win) — 5.7 points of value on UCF versus the market line of -24.5.
TTU up 39 entering the 4th quarter. Across 218 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
UCF 9, Texas Tech 48.
Yes — the model's pick (TTU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had TTU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(10:14) Shotgun #2 T.Jackson pass complete short left to #13 C.Domercant caught at TTU21, for 15 yards to the TTU19 fumbled by #13 C.Domercant at TTU19 forced by #3 B.Ramirez recovered by TTU #3 B.Ramirez at TTU19, End Of Play. The previous play is under automatic review - "Fumble". CALL UPHELD
(04:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 R.Virgil rush right for 30 yards gain to the UCF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:42, 1ST DOWN #48 S.Harrington kick attempt good (H: #41 J.Burgess, LS: #89 J.Llewellyn)
(13:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Dickey rush left for 12 yards gain to the UCF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:57, 1ST DOWN #48 S.Harrington kick attempt good (H: #41 J.Burgess, LS: #89 J.Llewellyn)
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