UCF vs. Texas Tech: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UCFTeam statsTTU
- Q3 3:10TTUC. Dickey run for 1 yd, for a TD (S. Harrington KICK)9–48
- Q3 9:13TTUStone Harrington 53 Yd Field Goal 9–41
- Q3 10:57UCFTa. Jackson pass to D. Wade for 8 yds, for a TD (N. Ruelas KICK)9–38
- Q2 0:02TTUStone Harrington 45 Yd Field Goal 2–38
- Q2 2:58TTUB. Morton pass to R. Virgil for 8 yds, for a TD (S. Harrington KICK)0–35
- Q2 4:42TTUR. Virgil run for 30 yds, for a TD (S. Harrington KICK)0–28
- Q2 10:11UCFTeam Safety 2–21
- Q2 14:55TTUReggie Virgil 5 Yd Run (Stone Harrington Kick)0–21
- Q1 9:29TTUJacob Rodriguez 2 Yd Run (Stone Harrington Kick)0–14
- Q1 13:57TTUCameron Dickey 12 Yd Run (Stone Harrington Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassTayven Jackson 27/33, 178 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushJaden Nixon 15 CAR, 32 YDS
- RecDylan Wade 6 REC, 45 YDS, 1 TD
- PassBehren Morton 14/19, 149 YDS, 1 TD
- RushCameron Dickey 11 CAR, 77 YDS, 2 TD
- RecCaleb Douglas 5 REC, 90 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTTU up 39 entering the 4th quarter. Across 218 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 13:57TTU +7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Dickey rush left for 12 yards gain to the UCF00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of UCF vs. Texas Tech?
UCF 9, Texas Tech 48.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TTU) was correct.
| UCF | TTU | |
|---|---|---|
| 230 | Total yards | 499 |
| 178 | Passing yards | 294 |
| 52 | Rushing yards | 205 |
| 13 | First downs | 26 |
| 4-13 | 3rd down | 8-12 |
| 1-3 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 27/33 | Comp/Att | 27/36 |
| 5.4 | Yards per pass | 8.2 |
| 1.8 | Yards per rush | 5.9 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 7-45 | Penalties | 9-76 |
| 30:53 | Possession | 29:07 |
Costliest call
Q3 9:13 TTU field goal on 4th & 5 at UCF 35. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.16 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q3 3:10TTUC. Dickey run for 1 yd, for a TD (S. Harrington KICK)9–48
- Q3 9:13TTUStone Harrington 53 Yd Field Goal 9–41
- Q3 10:57UCFTa. Jackson pass to D. Wade for 8 yds, for a TD (N. Ruelas KICK)9–38
- Q2 0:02TTUStone Harrington 45 Yd Field Goal 2–38
- Q2 2:58TTUB. Morton pass to R. Virgil for 8 yds, for a TD (S. Harrington KICK)0–35
- Q2 4:42TTUR. Virgil run for 30 yds, for a TD (S. Harrington KICK)0–28
- Q2 10:11UCFTeam Safety 2–21
- Q2 14:55TTUReggie Virgil 5 Yd Run (Stone Harrington Kick)0–21
- Q1 9:29TTUJacob Rodriguez 2 Yd Run (Stone Harrington Kick)0–14
- Q1 13:57TTUCameron Dickey 12 Yd Run (Stone Harrington Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TTU Elo 1937, UCF Elo 1528 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TTU -18.8 (89% to win) — 5.7 points clear of UCF's market line of -24.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| UCF | TTU | |
|---|---|---|
| -5.0 (#80) | CORE overall | +33.7 (#5) |
| -6 / -1 | offense / defense | +4 / -30 |
| 1.73 | points / drive | 2.82 |
| 2.10 | allowed / drive | 0.95 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| +2 | pass over expected | +4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →