Tulsa
2-3·American Athletic· Elo 1079
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TLSA | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| MEM | 7 | 21 | 10 | 7 | 45 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (MEM Elo 1689, TLSA Elo 1079) plus home-field advantage. That projects MEM -26.8 (98% to win) — 5.8 points of value on MEM versus the market line of -21.
MEM up 31 entering the 4th quarter. Across 343 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Tulsa 7, Memphis 45.
Yes — the model's pick (MEM) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had MEM pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jamari Hawkins for 21 yds to the TLSA 45 for a 1ST down
Brendon Lewis sacked for a loss of 13 yards to the TLSA 43
Brendon Lewis pass intercepted Elijah Green return for 38 yds to the MEM 34
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