Tulsa vs. Memphis: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TLSATeam statsMEM
- Q4 4:50MEMFrank Peasant 10 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic Kick)7–45
- Q3 0:53MEMGreg Desrosiers Jr. 2 Yd pass from Brendon Lewis (Gianni Spetic Kick)7–38
- Q3 9:53MEMGianni Spetic 50 Yd Field Goal 7–31
- Q2 1:07MEMBrendon Lewis 4 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic Kick)7–28
- Q2 2:04MEMCortez Braham Jr. 14 Yd pass from Brendon Lewis (Gianni Spetic Kick)7–21
- Q2 7:46TLSAMicah Tease 34 Yd pass from Kirk Francis (Seth Morgan Kick)7–14
- Q2 11:14MEMSutton Smith 3 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic Kick)0–14
- Q1 8:00MEMMatt Adcock 7 Yd pass from Brendon Lewis (Gianni Spetic Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- TLSA lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 13% explosive on a 33% success rate
- PassKirk Francis 20/34, 175 YDS, 1 TD, 3 INT
- RushDominic Richardson 14 CAR, 48 YDS
- RecMicah Tease 2 REC, 57 YDS, 1 TD
- PassBrendon Lewis 22/30, 266 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT
- RushBrendon Lewis 14 CAR, 67 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJamari Hawkins 7 REC, 110 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMEM up 31 entering the 4th quarter. Across 343 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Tulsa vs. Memphis?
Tulsa 7, Memphis 45.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MEM) was correct.
| TLSA | MEM | |
|---|---|---|
| 246 | Total yards | 457 |
| 175 | Passing yards | 266 |
| 71 | Rushing yards | 191 |
| 15 | First downs | 28 |
| 4-14 | 3rd down | 5-13 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 20/34 | Comp/Att | 22/30 |
| 5.1 | Yards per pass | 8.9 |
| 3.0 | Yards per rush | 4.0 |
| 4 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 1-5 | Penalties | 4-45 |
| 20:49 | Possession | 39:11 |
Costliest call
Q3 4:07 TLSA go for it on 4th & 8 at TLSA 37. The model preferred punt, a gap of 0.76 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:50MEMFrank Peasant 10 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic Kick)7–45
- Q3 0:53MEMGreg Desrosiers Jr. 2 Yd pass from Brendon Lewis (Gianni Spetic Kick)7–38
- Q3 9:53MEMGianni Spetic 50 Yd Field Goal 7–31
- Q2 1:07MEMBrendon Lewis 4 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic Kick)7–28
- Q2 2:04MEMCortez Braham Jr. 14 Yd pass from Brendon Lewis (Gianni Spetic Kick)7–21
- Q2 7:46TLSAMicah Tease 34 Yd pass from Kirk Francis (Seth Morgan Kick)7–14
- Q2 11:14MEMSutton Smith 3 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic Kick)0–14
- Q1 8:00MEMMatt Adcock 7 Yd pass from Brendon Lewis (Gianni Spetic Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MEM Elo 1689, TLSA Elo 1079 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MEM -26.8 (95% to win) — 5.8 points clear of MEM's market line of -21. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesMemphis leads 21–12 · Memphis has won 2 straight · 39% have been one-possession games
| TLSA | MEM | |
|---|---|---|
| -8.2 (#90) | CORE overall | +2.0 (#61) |
| -8 / +0 | offense / defense | +4 / +2 |
| 1.91 | points / drive | 2.73 |
| 2.62 | allowed / drive | 2.19 |
| 27% | three-and-outs | 20% |
| -4 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →