Troy vs. Southern Miss: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TROYTeam statsUSM
- Q4 3:16TROYRaRa Thomas 75 Yd pass from Goose Crowder (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)28–18
- Q4 3:27USMCarl Chester 10 Yd pass from Braylon Braxton (Braylon Braxton Pass to Micah Davis for Two-Point Conversion)21–18
- Q4 6:58TROYRaRa Thomas 7 Yd pass from Goose Crowder (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)21–10
- Q3 2:46USMKadinn Morris 0 Yd Run (Creighton Wilbanks Kick)14–10
- Q2 0:18TROYPeyton Higgins 16 Yd pass from Goose Crowder (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)14–3
- Q2 5:42USMCreighton Wilbanks 27 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q2 10:05TROYTae Meadows 3 Yd Run (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- USM played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and TROY did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.4 vs 3rd & 6.0
- PassGoose Crowder 24/34, 285 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushTae Meadows 21 CAR, 94 YDS, 1 TD
- RecRaRa Thomas 5 REC, 118 YDS, 2 TD
- PassBraylon Braxton 20/35, 209 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushJeffery Pittman 10 CAR, 51 YDS
- RecCarl Chester 4 REC, 76 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTROY up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 3:16TROY +35%
#9 G.Crowder pass complete deep middle to #7 R.Thomas caught at USM40, for 75 yards to the USM00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q4 3:27USM +34%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 B.Braxton pass complete short right to #7 C.Chester caught at TROY00, for 10 yards to the TROY00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN #1 B.Braxton pass attempt Suc…
- Q1 14:44USM +26%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 B.Braxton pass complete short right to #0 J.Pittman caught at USM25, for 3 yards to the USM28 (#5 K.Levine)
- Q3 2:46USM +24%
Kadinn Morris 0 Yd Run (Creighton Wilbanks Kick)
- Q2 10:05TROY +20%
#22 T.Meadows rush left for 3 yards gain to the USM00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 0:18TROY +19%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 G.Crowder pass complete short left to #2 P.Higgins caught at USM00, for 16 yards to the USM00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Troy vs. Southern Miss?
Troy 28, Southern Miss 18.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked USM, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| TROY | USM | |
|---|---|---|
| 428 | Total yards | 304 |
| 296 | Passing yards | 209 |
| 132 | Rushing yards | 95 |
| 22 | First downs | 20 |
| 7-15 | 3rd down | 5-14 |
| 1-3 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 25/35 | Comp/Att | 20/35 |
| 8.5 | Yards per pass | 6.0 |
| 3.5 | Yards per rush | 3.1 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 11-87 | Penalties | 6-53 |
| 32:30 | Possession | 27:30 |
Costliest call
Q1 12:05 TROY punt on 4th & 3 at USM 45. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.92 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:16TROYRaRa Thomas 75 Yd pass from Goose Crowder (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)28–18
- Q4 3:27USMCarl Chester 10 Yd pass from Braylon Braxton (Braylon Braxton Pass to Micah Davis for Two-Point Conversion)21–18
- Q4 6:58TROYRaRa Thomas 7 Yd pass from Goose Crowder (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)21–10
- Q3 2:46USMKadinn Morris 0 Yd Run (Creighton Wilbanks Kick)14–10
- Q2 0:18TROYPeyton Higgins 16 Yd pass from Goose Crowder (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)14–3
- Q2 5:42USMCreighton Wilbanks 27 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q2 10:05TROYTae Meadows 3 Yd Run (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (USM Elo 1297, TROY Elo 1362 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects USM +0.2 (51% to win) — 7.2 points clear of TROY's market line of -7. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesTroy leads 6–3 · Troy has won 5 straight · 33% have been one-possession games
| TROY | USM | |
|---|---|---|
| -16.6 (#116) | CORE overall | -6.7 (#86) |
| -13 / +4 | offense / defense | -6 / +1 |
| 1.77 | points / drive | 2.09 |
| 1.83 | allowed / drive | 2.19 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 25% |
| +0 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →