| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TROY | 0 | 14 | 0 | 14 | 28 |
| USM | 0 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 18 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (USM Elo 1297, TROY Elo 1362) plus home-field advantage. That projects USM +0.2 (49% to win) — 7.2 points of value on TROY versus the market line of -7.
TROY up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Troy 28, Southern Miss 18.
Yes — the model's pick (TROY) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had TROY pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(03:27) #9 G.Crowder pass complete deep middle to #7 R.Thomas caught at USM40, for 75 yards to the USM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:16, 1ST DOWN #40 S.Renfroe kick attempt good (H: #28 E.Crenshaw, LS: #87 C.Walls)
(03:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 B.Braxton pass complete deep left to #7 C.Chester caught at TROY25, for 30 yards to the TROY25 (#5 K.Levine), 1ST DOWN
(02:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 B.Braxton pass complete short right to #8 B.Brown caught at TROY47, for 13 yards to the TROY46 (#7 J.Stringer; #17 M.Odom), 1ST DOWN
Team boards, recruiting & CFB talk — start a thread.
Open the boards →
