Texas Tech vs. Kansas State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TTUTeam statsKSU
- Q4 2:54TTUCaleb Douglas 19 Yd pass from Behren Morton (Stone Harrington Kick)43–20
- Q4 4:52TTUJohn Curry 10 Yd Fumble Recovery (Stone Harrington Kick)36–20
- Q4 12:44KSUGarrett Oakley 9 Yd pass from Avery Johnson (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)29–20
- Q3 1:23TTUCaleb Douglas 1 Yd pass from Behren Morton (Stone Harrington Kick)29–14
- Q3 6:35TTUStone Harrington 29 Yd Field Goal 22–14
- Q3 9:51KSUAvery Johnson 18 Yd Run (Luis Rodriguez Kick)19–14
- Q3 12:54TTUJ'Koby Williams 41 Yd Run (Stone Harrington Kick)19–7
- Q2 0:00TTUStone Harrington 55 Yd Field Goal 12–7
- Q2 3:45TTUCameron Dickey 1 Yd Run (Stone Harrington PAT failed)9–7
- Q2 6:31TTUStone Harrington 29 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 7:39KSUAvery Johnson 46 Yd Run (Luis Rodriguez Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassBehren Morton 21/32, 249 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushJ'Koby Williams 17 CAR, 135 YDS, 1 TD
- RecCaleb Douglas 8 REC, 82 YDS, 2 TD
- PassAvery Johnson 16/33, 199 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushAvery Johnson 15 CAR, 88 YDS, 2 TD
- RecGarrett Oakley 5 REC, 62 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTTU up 15 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,206 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 7:39KSU +18%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 A.Johnson rush right for 46 yards gain to the TTU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q3 9:51KSU +16%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 A.Johnson rush middle for 18 yards gain to the TTU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 3:45TTU +12%
Shotgun #8 C.Dickey rush middle for 1 yard gain to the KSTATE00 TOUCHDOWN PENALTY KSTATE Offside declined
- Q2 0:00TTU +11%
Stone Harrington 55 Yd Field Goal
- Q1 2:42TTU +10%
PENALTY TTU Encroachment (#1 R.Virgil) 6 yards from TTU41 to TTU35. NO PLAY
- Q3 12:43KSU +5%
Shotgun #2 A.Johnson pass complete short right to #86 G.Oakley caught at KSTATE25, for 5 yards to the KSTATE30 (#6 J.Curry)
FAQ
What was the final score of Texas Tech vs. Kansas State?
Texas Tech 43, Kansas State 20.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TTU) was correct.
| TTU | KSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 436 | Total yards | 325 |
| 249 | Passing yards | 199 |
| 187 | Rushing yards | 126 |
| 18 | First downs | 11 |
| 7-17 | 3rd down | 7-15 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 0-4 |
| 21/32 | Comp/Att | 16/33 |
| 7.8 | Yards per pass | 6.0 |
| 4.3 | Yards per rush | 4.2 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 5 |
| 4-21 | Penalties | 3-20 |
| 33:24 | Possession | 26:36 |
Costliest call
Q2 12:03 KSU punt on 4th & 3 at TTU 45. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.92 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:54TTUCaleb Douglas 19 Yd pass from Behren Morton (Stone Harrington Kick)43–20
- Q4 4:52TTUJohn Curry 10 Yd Fumble Recovery (Stone Harrington Kick)36–20
- Q4 12:44KSUGarrett Oakley 9 Yd pass from Avery Johnson (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)29–20
- Q3 1:23TTUCaleb Douglas 1 Yd pass from Behren Morton (Stone Harrington Kick)29–14
- Q3 6:35TTUStone Harrington 29 Yd Field Goal 22–14
- Q3 9:51KSUAvery Johnson 18 Yd Run (Luis Rodriguez Kick)19–14
- Q3 12:54TTUJ'Koby Williams 41 Yd Run (Stone Harrington Kick)19–7
- Q2 0:00TTUStone Harrington 55 Yd Field Goal 12–7
- Q2 3:45TTUCameron Dickey 1 Yd Run (Stone Harrington PAT failed)9–7
- Q2 6:31TTUStone Harrington 29 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 7:39KSUAvery Johnson 46 Yd Run (Luis Rodriguez Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (KSU Elo 1753, TTU Elo 1855 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects KSU +1.7 (47% to win) — 5.8 points clear of KSU's market line of +7.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesKansas State leads 15–10 · 32% have been one-possession games
| TTU | KSU | |
|---|---|---|
| +33.7 (#5) | CORE overall | +6.7 (#49) |
| +4 / -30 | offense / defense | +3 / -4 |
| 2.82 | points / drive | 2.44 |
| 0.95 | allowed / drive | 2.09 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| +4 | pass over expected | -2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →