Bill Snyder Family StadiumConference gameClosing line: TTU +-7.5 · TTU covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TTU | 0 | 12 | 17 | 14 | 43 |
| KSU | 7 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 20 |
Team stats
TTUthis game · better side highlightedKSU
436
Total yards
325249
Passing yards
199187
Rushing yards
12618
First downs
117-17 · 41%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
KSU 1753
TTU 1855
Projected spread
KSU +1.7
incl. home edge
Model pick
TTU
55% to win
Market spread
KSU +7.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
KSU
5.8 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
45%
KSU · market 29%
Our model blends Elo ratings (KSU Elo 1753, TTU Elo 1855) plus home-field advantage. That projects KSU +1.7 (45% to win) — 5.8 points of value on KSU versus the market line of +7.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
KSU (top)TTU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: KSU 0%
Key matchups · Pro
- KSU rush offense (0.18 PPA) vs. TTU rush defense (-0.16 allowed) — edge KSU.
- KSU pass offense (0.25 PPA) vs. TTU pass defense (-0.00 allowed) — edge KSU.
- TTU pass offense (0.35 PPA) vs. KSU pass defense (0.15 allowed) — edge TTU.
Drive-by-drive
TTU 7/15 scoring drives← own end zone →KSU 4/15 scoring drives
TTUINT6 pl, 34 yds· own 25Q1
KSUINT1 pl, 0 yds· own 42Q1
TTUPUNT5 pl, 10 yds· own 42Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
TTU up 15 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,206 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
95%
TTU went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Texas Tech vs. Kansas State?
Texas Tech 43, Kansas State 20.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TTU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had TTU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.