| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | OT1 | OT2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TXST | 7 | 10 | 0 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 37 |
| MRSH | 7 | 6 | 3 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 40 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (MRSH Elo 1582, TXST Elo 1555) plus home-field advantage. That projects MRSH -3.5 (60% to win) — 6.5 points of value on MRSH versus the market line of +3.
TXST up 1 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,678 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Texas State 37, Marshall 40.
Yes — the model's pick (MRSH) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had MRSH pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Brad Jackson pass complete to Beau Sparks for 73 yds for a TD (Tyler Robles KICK)
Brad Jackson pass complete to Chris Dawn Jr. for 66 yds to the MRSH 4 for a 1ST down
Brad Jackson pass complete to Chris Dawn Jr. for 66 yds to the MRSH 4 for a 1ST down
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