Texas State vs. Marshall: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TXSTTeam statsMRSH
- 2OT 0:00MRSHJo'Shon Barbie 1 Yd Run37–40
- 2OT 0:00TXSTTyler Robles 29 Yd Field Goal37–34
- OT 0:00TXSTLincoln Pare 1 Yd Run (Tyler Robles Kick)34–34
- OT 0:00MRSHJo'Shon Barbie 4 Yd Run (Lorcan Quinn Kick)27–34
- Q4 0:00TXSTTyler Robles 50 Yd Field Goal 27–27
- Q4 1:14MRSHAdrian Norton 21 Yd pass from Carlos Del Rio-Wilson (Demarcus Lacey Run for Two-Point Conversion)24–27
- Q4 6:08MRSHLorcan Quinn 23 Yd Field Goal 24–19
- Q4 14:45TXSTBeau Sparks 73 Yd pass from Brad Jackson (Tyler Robles Kick)24–16
- Q3 0:39MRSHLorcan Quinn 31 Yd Field Goal 17–16
- Q2 1:22TXSTTitus Lyons 2 Yd pass from Brad Jackson (Tyler Robles Kick)17–13
- Q2 3:42MRSHLorcan Quinn 48 Yd Field Goal 10–13
- Q2 7:55TXSTTyler Robles 23 Yd Field Goal 10–10
- Q2 14:15MRSHLorcan Quinn 24 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q1 10:01MRSHAntwan Roberts 5 Yd Run (Lorcan Quinn Kick)7–7
- Q1 14:31TXSTBrad Jackson 1 Yd Run (Tyler Robles Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- TXST lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 15% explosive on a 35% success rate
- PassBrad Jackson 26/38, 444 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushBrad Jackson 19 CAR, 48 YDS, 1 TD
- RecChris Dawn Jr. 5 REC, 180 YDS
- PassCarlos Del Rio-Wilson 22/32, 277 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushCarlos Del Rio-Wilson 17 CAR, 88 YDS
- RecDemarcus Lacey 7 REC, 88 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTXST up 1 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,678 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:00TXST +98%
Tyler Robles 50 yd FG GOOD
- Q4 1:14MRSH +90%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Adrian Norton for 21 yds for a TD (D. Lacey Run For Two-point Conversion)
- 2OT 0:00MRSH +80%
J.Barbie rushed for 1 yards. TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on TXST-TXST, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, declined. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane and the pla…
- Q1 12:06MRSH +58%
Texas State Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the TXST 13
- Q3 6:41MRSH +51%
Greg Burrell run for 9 yds to the MRSH 31
- OT 0:00TXST +48%
L.Pare rushed for 1 yards. TOUCHDOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Texas State vs. Marshall?
Texas State 37, Marshall 40.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MRSH) was correct.
| TXST | MRSH | |
|---|---|---|
| 558 | Total yards | 466 |
| 444 | Passing yards | 280 |
| 114 | Rushing yards | 186 |
| 20 | First downs | 27 |
| 9-19 | 3rd down | 6-14 |
| 0-3 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 26/39 | Comp/Att | 23/33 |
| 11.4 | Yards per pass | 8.5 |
| 2.6 | Yards per rush | 3.9 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 12-80 | Penalties | 5-60 |
| 27:17 | Possession | 32:43 |
Costliest call
Q2 7:55 TXST field goal on 4th & 3 at MRSH 4. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.45 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- 2OT 0:00MRSHJo'Shon Barbie 1 Yd Run37–40
- 2OT 0:00TXSTTyler Robles 29 Yd Field Goal37–34
- OT 0:00TXSTLincoln Pare 1 Yd Run (Tyler Robles Kick)34–34
- OT 0:00MRSHJo'Shon Barbie 4 Yd Run (Lorcan Quinn Kick)27–34
- Q4 0:00TXSTTyler Robles 50 Yd Field Goal 27–27
- Q4 1:14MRSHAdrian Norton 21 Yd pass from Carlos Del Rio-Wilson (Demarcus Lacey Run for Two-Point Conversion)24–27
- Q4 6:08MRSHLorcan Quinn 23 Yd Field Goal 24–19
- Q4 14:45TXSTBeau Sparks 73 Yd pass from Brad Jackson (Tyler Robles Kick)24–16
- Q3 0:39MRSHLorcan Quinn 31 Yd Field Goal 17–16
- Q2 1:22TXSTTitus Lyons 2 Yd pass from Brad Jackson (Tyler Robles Kick)17–13
- Q2 3:42MRSHLorcan Quinn 48 Yd Field Goal 10–13
- Q2 7:55TXSTTyler Robles 23 Yd Field Goal 10–10
- Q2 14:15MRSHLorcan Quinn 24 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q1 10:01MRSHAntwan Roberts 5 Yd Run (Lorcan Quinn Kick)7–7
- Q1 14:31TXSTBrad Jackson 1 Yd Run (Tyler Robles Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MRSH Elo 1582, TXST Elo 1555 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MRSH -3.5 (60% to win) — 6.5 points clear of MRSH's market line of +3. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| TXST | MRSH | |
|---|---|---|
| +9.4 (#41) | CORE overall | -2.7 (#71) |
| +12 / +3 | offense / defense | +0 / +3 |
| 3.21 | points / drive | 2.37 |
| 2.73 | allowed / drive | 2.59 |
| 20% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| -4 | pass over expected | -6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →