| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEM | 0 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 24 |
| GT | 21 | 0 | 14 | 10 | 45 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (GT Elo 1560, TEM Elo 1221) plus home-field advantage. That projects GT -16 (88% to win) — 8.5 points of value on TEM versus the market line of -24.5.
GT up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 671 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Temple 24, Georgia Tech 45.
Yes — the model's pick (GT) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had GT pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Haynes King pass complete to Isiah Canion for 37 yds for a TD
Evan Simon pass complete to JoJo Bermudez for 28 yds for a TD
Malachi Hosley run for 34 yds for a TD (Aidan Birr KICK)
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