Syracuse vs. SMU: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
SYRTeam statsSMU
- Q4 5:20SYRJohntay Cook 11 Yd pass from Rickie Collins (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)18–31
- Q4 8:55SYRDavid Omopariola Safety12–31
- Q4 9:59SYRRickie Collins 6 Yd Run (Tripp Woody Kick)10–31
- Q4 12:37SMUJordan Hudson 9 Yd pass from Kevin Jennings (Sam Keltner Kick)3–31
- Q2 0:00SYRTripp Woody 38 Yd Field Goal 3–24
- Q2 2:18SMUDerrick McFall 14 Yd pass from Kevin Jennings (Sam Keltner Kick)0–24
- Q2 8:02SMURJ Maryland 16 Yd pass from Kevin Jennings (Sam Keltner Kick)0–17
- Q2 12:58SMUYamir Knight 15 Yd pass from Kevin Jennings (Sam Keltner Kick)0–10
- Q1 2:34SMUSam Keltner 26 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- SYR played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and SMU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.7 vs 3rd & 4.9
- PassRickie Collins 22/45, 279 YDS, 1 TD, 3 INT
- RushRickie Collins 10 CAR, 57 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJohntay Cook II 7 REC, 82 YDS, 1 TD
- PassKevin Jennings 29/35, 285 YDS, 4 TD, 1 INT
- RushTJ Harden 16 CAR, 67 YDS
- RecRomello Brinson 7 REC, 71 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsSMU up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 671 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Syracuse vs. SMU?
Syracuse 18, SMU 31.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (SMU) was correct.
| SYR | SMU | |
|---|---|---|
| 389 | Total yards | 370 |
| 279 | Passing yards | 294 |
| 110 | Rushing yards | 76 |
| 18 | First downs | 21 |
| 6-16 | 3rd down | 5-12 |
| 2-5 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 22/45 | Comp/Att | 30/36 |
| 6.2 | Yards per pass | 8.2 |
| 3.3 | Yards per rush | 2.7 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 6-60 | Penalties | 2-15 |
| 31:25 | Possession | 28:35 |
Costliest call
Q3 13:02 SYR go for it on 4th & 15 at SYR 20. The model preferred punt, a gap of 1.25 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:20SYRJohntay Cook 11 Yd pass from Rickie Collins (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)18–31
- Q4 8:55SYRDavid Omopariola Safety12–31
- Q4 9:59SYRRickie Collins 6 Yd Run (Tripp Woody Kick)10–31
- Q4 12:37SMUJordan Hudson 9 Yd pass from Kevin Jennings (Sam Keltner Kick)3–31
- Q2 0:00SYRTripp Woody 38 Yd Field Goal 3–24
- Q2 2:18SMUDerrick McFall 14 Yd pass from Kevin Jennings (Sam Keltner Kick)0–24
- Q2 8:02SMURJ Maryland 16 Yd pass from Kevin Jennings (Sam Keltner Kick)0–17
- Q2 12:58SMUYamir Knight 15 Yd pass from Kevin Jennings (Sam Keltner Kick)0–10
- Q1 2:34SMUSam Keltner 26 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (SMU Elo 1691, SYR Elo 1426 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects SMU -13 (81% to win) — 4.5 points clear of SYR's market line of -17.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| SYR | SMU | |
|---|---|---|
| -20.9 (#127) | CORE overall | +14.6 (#27) |
| -14 / +7 | offense / defense | +9 / -5 |
| 1.12 | points / drive | 2.63 |
| 2.89 | allowed / drive | 1.64 |
| 32% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| -2 | pass over expected | +10 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →