Syracuse
3-2·ACC· Elo 1426
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SYR | 0 | 3 | 0 | 15 | 18 |
| SMU | 3 | 21 | 0 | 7 | 31 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (SMU Elo 1691, SYR Elo 1426) plus home-field advantage. That projects SMU -13 (83% to win) — 4.5 points of value on SYR versus the market line of -17.5.
SMU up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 671 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Syracuse 18, SMU 31.
Yes — the model's pick (SMU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had SMU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Rickie Collins pass complete to Justus Ross-Simmons for 52 yds to the SMU 18 for a 1ST down
Rickie Collins run for no gain to the SMU 1
Rickie Collins pass intercepted Marcellus Barnes Jr. return for no gain to the SMU 5
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