Southern Miss vs. Louisiana Tech: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
USMTeam statsLT
- Q4 0:22USMDavis Dalton 34 Yd pass from Braylon Braxton (Creighton Wilbanks Kick)20–30
- Q3 0:58USMReed Harradine 30 Yd Field Goal 13–30
- Q2 0:23LTClay Thevenin 1 Yd Run (Drew Henderson Kick)10–30
- Q2 14:01LTKolbe Fields 48 Yd Interception Return (Drew Henderson PAT failed)10–23
- Q1 0:46LTOmiri Wiggins 3 Yd Run (Drew Henderson Kick)10–17
- Q1 3:29USMReed Harradine 38 Yd Field Goal 10–10
- Q1 8:10LTDrew Henderson 24 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q1 12:15USMKyirin Heath 30 Yd pass from Braylon Braxton (Reed Harradine Kick)7–7
- Q1 13:43LTBlake Baker 1 Yd Run (Drew Henderson Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- USM lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 16% explosive on a 36% success rate
- PassBraylon Braxton 28/47, 392 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushRobert Briggs 9 CAR, 47 YDS
- RecCarl Chester 4 REC, 118 YDS
- PassBlake Baker 15/21, 238 YDS
- RushOmiri Wiggins 12 CAR, 49 YDS, 1 TD
- RecEli Finley 6 REC, 154 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsLT up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 0:46LT +11%
Omiri Wiggins run for 3 yds for a TD (Drew Henderson KICK)
- Q1 12:15USM +10%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Kyirin Heath for 30 yds for a TD (Reed Harradine KICK)
- Q1 13:43LT +10%
Blake Baker run for 1 yd for a TD (Drew Henderson KICK)
- Q2 14:01LT +6%
Braylon Braxton pass intercepted Kolbe Fields return for 48 yds for a TD (Drew Henderson PAT MISSED)
- Q1 3:29USM +6%
Reed Harradine 38 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Southern Miss vs. Louisiana Tech?
Southern Miss 20, Louisiana Tech 30.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (LT) was correct.
| USM | LT | |
|---|---|---|
| 514 | Total yards | 339 |
| 392 | Passing yards | 238 |
| 122 | Rushing yards | 101 |
| 28 | First downs | 14 |
| 7-17 | 3rd down | 2-13 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 28/47 | Comp/Att | 15/21 |
| 8.3 | Yards per pass | 11.3 |
| 3.5 | Yards per rush | 2.7 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 8-54 | Penalties | 8-76 |
| 32:36 | Possession | 27:24 |
Costliest call
Q3 10:56 USM punt on 4th & 1 at USM 33. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.83 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:22USMDavis Dalton 34 Yd pass from Braylon Braxton (Creighton Wilbanks Kick)20–30
- Q3 0:58USMReed Harradine 30 Yd Field Goal 13–30
- Q2 0:23LTClay Thevenin 1 Yd Run (Drew Henderson Kick)10–30
- Q2 14:01LTKolbe Fields 48 Yd Interception Return (Drew Henderson PAT failed)10–23
- Q1 0:46LTOmiri Wiggins 3 Yd Run (Drew Henderson Kick)10–17
- Q1 3:29USMReed Harradine 38 Yd Field Goal 10–10
- Q1 8:10LTDrew Henderson 24 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q1 12:15USMKyirin Heath 30 Yd pass from Braylon Braxton (Reed Harradine Kick)7–7
- Q1 13:43LTBlake Baker 1 Yd Run (Drew Henderson Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (LT Elo 1471, USM Elo 1178 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects LT -14.1 (83% to win) — 11.1 points clear of LT's market line of -3. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesSouthern Miss leads 20–13 · 39% have been one-possession games
| USM | LT | |
|---|---|---|
| -6.7 (#86) | CORE overall | -2.2 (#70) |
| -6 / +1 | offense / defense | -6 / -4 |
| 2.09 | points / drive | 2.08 |
| 2.19 | allowed / drive | 1.61 |
| 25% | three-and-outs | 31% |
| +1 | pass over expected | -9 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →