South Florida vs. Navy: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
USFTeam statsNAVY
- Q4 1:55USFMudia Reuben 41 Yd pass from Byrum Brown (Byrum Brown Pass to Keshaun Singleton for Two-Point Conversion)38–41
- Q4 3:59NAVYBraxton Woodson 64 Yd Run (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)30–41
- Q4 6:14USFJeremiah Koger 29 Yd pass from Nykahi Davenport (Nico Gramatica PAT failed)30–34
- Q4 9:29NAVYBraxton Woodson 20 Yd Run (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)24–34
- Q4 13:59USFByrum Brown 60 Yd Run (Byrum Brown Pass to Mudia Reuben for Two-Point Conversion)24–27
- Q4 14:17NAVYNathan Kirkwood 31 Yd Field Goal 16–27
- Q3 12:32USFByrum Brown 3 Yd Run (Nico Gramatica Kick)16–24
- Q2 4:30NAVYNathan Kirkwood 44 Yd Field Goal 9–24
- Q2 7:00NAVYAlex Tecza 14 Yd pass from Blake Horvath (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)9–21
- Q2 12:53USFKeshaun Singleton 12 Yd pass from Byrum Brown (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)9–14
- Q1 0:00NAVYBrandon Chatman 4 Yd Run (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)3–14
- Q1 6:40USFNico Gramatica 22 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 9:53NAVYAlex Tecza 76 Yd Run (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- NAVY played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and USF did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.1 vs 3rd & 5.2
- NAVY lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 15% explosive on a 40% success rate
- PassByrum Brown 23/32, 327 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushByrum Brown 17 CAR, 136 YDS, 2 TD
- RecJeremiah Koger 9 REC, 112 YDS, 1 TD
- PassBlake Horvath 8/15, 147 YDS, 1 TD
- RushAlex Tecza 12 CAR, 126 YDS, 1 TD
- RecEli Heidenreich 5 REC, 146 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsNAVY up 8 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,588 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 13:59USF +35%
No Huddle-Shotgun #17 B.Brown rush middle for 60 yards gain to the Navy00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN #6 M.Reuben pass attempt Successful
- Q4 0:07NAVY +34%
PENALTY Navy Delay Of Game 5 yards from USF29 to USF34. NO PLAY
- Q4 1:55USF +33%
Mudia Reuben 41 Yd pass from Byrum Brown (Byrum Brown Pass to Keshaun Singleton for Two-Point Conversion)
- Q4 6:14USF +29%
No Huddle-Shotgun #25 N.Davenport pass complete deep left to #16 J.Koger caught at Navy00, for 29 yards to the Navy00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q4 9:29NAVY +26%
No Huddle #5 B.Woodson rush left for 20 yards gain to the USF00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q4 4:42NAVY +24%
#5 B.Woodson rush middle for 0 yards to the Navy36 (#40 J.Merrifield)
FAQ
What was the final score of South Florida vs. Navy?
South Florida 38, Navy 41.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked USF, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| USF | NAVY | |
|---|---|---|
| 556 | Total yards | 524 |
| 356 | Passing yards | 186 |
| 200 | Rushing yards | 338 |
| 23 | First downs | 21 |
| 5-12 | 3rd down | 5-14 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 24/33 | Comp/Att | 10/19 |
| 10.8 | Yards per pass | 9.8 |
| 5.6 | Yards per rush | 6.4 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 5-31 | Penalties | 7-65 |
| 24:49 | Possession | 35:11 |
Costliest call
Q1 6:40 USF field goal on 4th & 3 at NAVY 4. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.45 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:55USFMudia Reuben 41 Yd pass from Byrum Brown (Byrum Brown Pass to Keshaun Singleton for Two-Point Conversion)38–41
- Q4 3:59NAVYBraxton Woodson 64 Yd Run (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)30–41
- Q4 6:14USFJeremiah Koger 29 Yd pass from Nykahi Davenport (Nico Gramatica PAT failed)30–34
- Q4 9:29NAVYBraxton Woodson 20 Yd Run (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)24–34
- Q4 13:59USFByrum Brown 60 Yd Run (Byrum Brown Pass to Mudia Reuben for Two-Point Conversion)24–27
- Q4 14:17NAVYNathan Kirkwood 31 Yd Field Goal 16–27
- Q3 12:32USFByrum Brown 3 Yd Run (Nico Gramatica Kick)16–24
- Q2 4:30NAVYNathan Kirkwood 44 Yd Field Goal 9–24
- Q2 7:00NAVYAlex Tecza 14 Yd pass from Blake Horvath (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)9–21
- Q2 12:53USFKeshaun Singleton 12 Yd pass from Byrum Brown (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)9–14
- Q1 0:00NAVYBrandon Chatman 4 Yd Run (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)3–14
- Q1 6:40USFNico Gramatica 22 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 9:53NAVYAlex Tecza 76 Yd Run (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (NAVY Elo 1480, USF Elo 1734 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects NAVY +7.8 (31% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#93 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #50 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds · #55 of 57 in 2025 by biggest poll gap.
The 2025 upset archive →| USF | NAVY | |
|---|---|---|
| +16.2 (#25) | CORE overall | +9.3 (#43) |
| +11 / -5 | offense / defense | +13 / +3 |
| 3.02 | points / drive | 3.12 |
| 1.88 | allowed / drive | 2.74 |
| 21% | three-and-outs | 21% |
| -1 | pass over expected | -20 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →