Navy-Marine Corps Memorial StadiumConference gameClosing line: USF +-9 · NAVY covered
Sat, Nov 15, 5:00 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USF | 3 | 6 | 7 | 22 | 38 |
| NAVY | 14 | 10 | 0 | 17 | 41 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (NAVY Elo 1480, USF Elo 1734) plus home-field advantage. That projects NAVY +7.8 (28% to win), essentially in line with the market.
NAVY up 8 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,588 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
South Florida 38, Navy 41.
No — the model picked USF, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had USF pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
(10:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #46 A.Tecza rush middle for 76 yards gain to the USF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:53, 1ST DOWN #17 N.Kirkwood kick attempt good (H: #15 J.Carlson, LS: #92 R.Fry)
(04:07) Shotgun #5 B.Woodson rush right for 64 yards gain to the USF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:59, 1ST DOWN #17 N.Kirkwood kick attempt good (H: #15 J.Carlson, LS: #92 R.Fry)
(00:35) No Huddle #11 B.Horvath pass complete deep middle to #22 E.Heidenreich caught at Navy48, for 82 yards to the USF04 (#2 T.Ward), 1ST DOWN
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