Memorial StadiumConference gameClosing line: MIZ -10 · SC covered
Sat, Sep 20, 11:00 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC | 0 | 14 | 6 | 0 | 20 |
| MIZ | 0 | 12 | 6 | 11 | 29 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (MIZ Elo 1755, SC Elo 1645) plus home-field advantage. That projects MIZ -6.8 (69% to win) — 3.2 points of value on SC versus the market line of -10.
SC up 2 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,937 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
South Carolina 20, Missouri 29.
Yes — the model's pick (MIZ) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had MIZ pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Vandrevius Jacobs 49 Yd pass from LaNorris Sellers (William Joyce Kick)
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Nyck Harbor for 33 yds to the MIZ 18
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Jared Brown for 32 yds to the MIZ 39 for a 1ST down
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