San Diego State vs. Northern Illinois: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
SDSUTeam statsNIU
- Q4 0:00SDSUGabriel Plascencia 25 Yd Field Goal 6–3
- Q2 14:55SDSUGabriel Plascencia 30 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 7:10NIUAndrew Glass 31 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassJayden Denegal 13/20, 110 YDS, 2 INT
- RushLucky Sutton 17 CAR, 88 YDS
- RecJordan Napier 6 REC, 52 YDS
- PassJosh Holst 6/14, 49 YDS
- RushTelly Johnson Jr. 16 CAR, 53 YDS
- RecDeAree Rogers 5 REC, 51 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:49SDSU +51%
No Huddle Denegal,Jayden rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NIU09 (Gulley, Jr,Alvin; Dixon,Dasean) PENALTY NIU Offside 5 yards from NIU11 to NIU06, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY
- Q1 13:29NIU +44%
No Huddle-Shotgun Holst,Josh pass incomplete short left to Rogers,DeAree thrown to NIU47 PENALTY NIU Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Appleget,Jake) 5 yards from NIU41 to…
- Q4 2:38NIU +33%
PENALTY NIU False Start (Tweedy,Aidan) 5 yards from NIU15 to NIU10. NO PLAY
- Q4 2:38SDSU +31%
Hunter Green punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NIU 15
- Q4 5:07NIU +22%
Josh Holst run for 8 yds to the SDSU 44
- Q4 0:00SDSU +20%
Gabriel Plascencia 25 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of San Diego State vs. Northern Illinois?
San Diego State 6, Northern Illinois 3.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked NIU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| SDSU | NIU | |
|---|---|---|
| 266 | Total yards | 169 |
| 115 | Passing yards | 57 |
| 151 | Rushing yards | 112 |
| 19 | First downs | 10 |
| 5-15 | 3rd down | 4-15 |
| 1-3 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 14/22 | Comp/Att | 7/16 |
| 5.2 | Yards per pass | 3.6 |
| 3.4 | Yards per rush | 2.7 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 5-50 | Penalties | 7-60 |
| 31:18 | Possession | 28:42 |
Costliest call
Q3 6:45 SDSU punt on 4th & 3 at NIU 44. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.96 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:00SDSUGabriel Plascencia 25 Yd Field Goal 6–3
- Q2 14:55SDSUGabriel Plascencia 30 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 7:10NIUAndrew Glass 31 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (NIU Elo 1377, SDSU Elo 1422 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects NIU -0.6 (53% to win) — 2.1 points clear of NIU's market line of +1.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| SDSU | NIU | |
|---|---|---|
| +11.6 (#35) | CORE overall | -22.4 (#129) |
| -2 / -14 | offense / defense | -15 / +8 |
| 1.88 | points / drive | 1.59 |
| 1.14 | allowed / drive | 2.42 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 31% |
| -11 | pass over expected | -19 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →