Sat, Sep 27, 7:30 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SDSU | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| NIU | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (NIU Elo 1377, SDSU Elo 1422) plus home-field advantage. That projects NIU -0.6 (52% to win) — 2.1 points of value on NIU versus the market line of +1.5.
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = SDSU ahead, below = NIU ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
Tied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
San Diego State 6, Northern Illinois 3.
No — the model picked NIU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had NIU pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
Jayden Denegal pass intercepted Muhammed Jammeh return for 11 yds to the NIU 27
Jayden Denegal pass intercepted Jasper Beeler return for no gain to the NIU 32
Josh Holst run for 14 yds to the SDSU 32 for a 1ST down
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