| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SDSU | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| NIU | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
Team stats
Gridpex Model Prediction
Our model blends Elo ratings (NIU Elo 1377, SDSU Elo 1422) plus home-field advantage. That projects NIU -0.6 (52% to win) — 2.1 points of value on NIU versus the market line of +1.5.
Game flow
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = SDSU ahead, below = NIU ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
Season stats — 2025
Key matchups · Pro
- SDSU pass offense (0.09 PPA) vs. NIU pass defense (0.19 allowed) — edge NIU.
- NIU rush offense (0.11 PPA) vs. SDSU rush defense (0.06 allowed) — edge NIU.
- NIU pass offense (0.00 PPA) vs. SDSU pass defense (-0.04 allowed) — edge NIU.
Drive-by-drive
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
Tied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of San Diego State vs. Northern Illinois?
San Diego State 6, Northern Illinois 3.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked NIU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had NIU pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.