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Josh Holst
Josh Holst

#11Josh Holst

QB·Northern Illinois·2025

Josh Holst is a Clutch Passer for Northern Illinois. Josh's 2025 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 173 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

  • Usage share (volume)0.46
    Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
  • EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
    Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
  • Total EPA (value)0.51
    Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Josh Holst's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Passing
78/130 Comp/Att689 Pass yards4 Pass TD3 INT60.0% Comp %
Rushing
155 Rush yards1 Rush TD54 Carries2.9 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs QB peers

  • Efficiency0
  • Volume100
  • Dual-Threat45
  • Consistency55
  • Clutch88
Player type
Clutch Passer

Elevates on passing downs — 3rd-and-medium, two-minute drills, and pressure situations are where this QB is best.

3rd-down precisionLate-game valueHigh passing-down EPA
Peer percentiles
Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg
Game-to-game consistency55th %ile · average
Key findings
  • ▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
  • ▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
  • ▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
  • ▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.13 from the first to second half of the season.
  • ▸Peak game: 0.38 EPA/play in Wk 9 vs Ball State (SP+ -23).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗
Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

+0.380−0.38Wk 1 vs Holy Cross: -0.02 EPA/play1Wk 2 vs Maryland: +0.02 EPA/play2Wk 4 vs Mississippi State: +0.14 EPA/play4Wk 5 vs San Diego State: -0.05 EPA/play5Wk 8 vs Ohio: +0.11 EPA/play8Wk 9 vs Ball State: +0.38 EPA/play9Wk 11 vs Toledo: +0.04 EPA/play11
EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost
WkOpponentResultOpp SP+C/ATTPass YdsPass TDINTQBRRush YdsRush TDEPA/play
1vsHoly CrossW19-17—12/181010111.8110-0.02
2@MarylandL9-200.614/22910025.4200.02
4@Mississippi StateL10-384.114/231351150.51900.14
5vsSan Diego StateL3-66.76/14490013.3250-0.05
8@OhioL21-48-4.021/291612022.64800.11
9vsBall StateW21-7-23.06/11651165.83610.38
11@ToledoL3-426.05/13870023.11400.04

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy
Overall
41.4%
Passing plays
81.9%
Rushing plays
16.2%
Standard downs
34.1%
Passing downs
53.7%
EPA by down type
Standard downs
-0.07
Passing downs
0.17
Pass / Rush EPA
0.09 / 0.12

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

EPA = expected points added (opponent-adjusted). NIL estimates are model-based ranges, not reported deals. Data: CollegeFootballData. Not betting advice.