Sat, Nov 1, 12:00 AM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SHSU | 0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 14 |
| LT | 14 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 55 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (LT Elo 1378, SHSU Elo 1139) plus home-field advantage. That projects LT -12 (81% to win) — 4.5 points of value on SHSU versus the market line of -16.5.
LT up 27 entering the 4th quarter. Across 532 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Sam Houston 14, Louisiana Tech 55.
Yes — the model's pick (LT) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had LT pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 H.Watson pass intercepted by #8 J.Fields at LAT15 #8 J.Fields return 85 yards to the SHU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:13 #43 D.Henderson kick attempt good (H: #48 J.Chance, LS: #41 E.Burch)
(03:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 E.Green rush left for 80 yards gain to the LAT00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:13, 1ST DOWN #49 C.Pavon kick attempt good (H: #81 N.Ottomanelli, LS: #46 C.Whitington)
Shotgun #0 A.Burnette rush middle for 66 yards gain to the SHU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:08, 1ST DOWN #43 D.Henderson kick attempt good (H: #48 J.Chance, LS: #41 E.Burch)
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