Joe Aillet StadiumConference gameClosing line: LT -16.5 · LT covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SHSU | 0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 14 |
| LT | 14 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 55 |
Team stats
SHSUthis game · better side highlightedLT
502
Total yards
646206
Passing yards
221296
Rushing yards
42520
First downs
294-15 · 27%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
LT 1378
SHSU 1139
Projected spread
LT -12
incl. home edge
Model pick
LT
81% to win
Market spread
LT -16.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
SHSU
4.5 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
81%
LT · market 86%
Our model blends Elo ratings (LT Elo 1378, SHSU Elo 1139) plus home-field advantage. That projects LT -12 (81% to win) — 4.5 points of value on SHSU versus the market line of -16.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
LT (top)SHSU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: LT 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- LT pass offense (0.19 PPA) vs. SHSU pass defense (0.36 allowed) — edge SHSU.
- SHSU pass offense (0.01 PPA) vs. LT pass defense (0.14 allowed) — edge LT.
- SHSU rush offense (0.07 PPA) vs. LT rush defense (0.02 allowed) — edge SHSU.
Drive-by-drive
SHSU 3/12 scoring drives← own end zone →LT 7/11 scoring drives
LTTD7 pl, 74 yds· own 26Q1
SHSUPUNT6 pl, 17 yds· own 25Q1
LTTD5 pl, 58 yds· own 42Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
LT up 27 entering the 4th quarter. Across 532 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
99%
LT went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Sam Houston vs. Louisiana Tech?
Sam Houston 14, Louisiana Tech 55.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (LT) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had LT pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.