Sam Houston vs. Louisiana Tech: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
SHSUTeam statsLT
- Q4 5:08LTAndrew Burnette 67 Yd Run (Drew Henderson Kick)14–55
- Q4 11:13LTJacob Fields 85 Yd Interception Return (Drew Henderson Kick)14–48
- Q3 3:13SHSUElijah Green 80 Yd Run (Christian Pavon Kick)14–41
- Q3 3:25LTClay Thevenin 25 Yd Run (Drew Henderson Kick)7–41
- Q3 5:53LTOmiri Wiggins 16 Yd Run (Drew Henderson Kick)7–35
- Q3 9:23SHSUElijah Green 28 Yd Run (Christian Pavon Kick)7–27
- Q2 6:44LTBlake Baker 1 Yd Run (Drew Henderson PAT failed)0–27
- Q2 13:39LTClay Thevenin 50 Yd Run (Drew Henderson Kick)0–21
- Q1 6:33LTClay Thevenin 6 Yd Run (Drew Henderson Kick)0–14
- Q1 11:48LTDevin Gandy 36 Yd pass from Blake Baker (Drew Henderson Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassHunter Watson 14/33, 193 YDS, 1 INT
- RushElijah Green 10 CAR, 191 YDS, 2 TD
- RecChris Reed 6 REC, 79 YDS
- PassBlake Baker 17/21, 221 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushClay Thevenin 11 CAR, 143 YDS, 3 TD
- RecDevin Gandy 2 REC, 78 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsLT up 27 entering the 4th quarter. Across 532 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 11:48LT +11%
Devin Gandy 36 Yd pass from Blake Baker (Drew Henderson Kick)
- Q1 6:33LT +7%
Clay Thevenin 6 Yd Run (Drew Henderson Kick)
FAQ
What was the final score of Sam Houston vs. Louisiana Tech?
Sam Houston 14, Louisiana Tech 55.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (LT) was correct.
| SHSU | LT | |
|---|---|---|
| 503 | Total yards | 647 |
| 207 | Passing yards | 221 |
| 296 | Rushing yards | 426 |
| 20 | First downs | 29 |
| 4-15 | 3rd down | 4-6 |
| 1-6 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 17/40 | Comp/Att | 17/21 |
| 5.2 | Yards per pass | 10.5 |
| 9.0 | Yards per rush | 10.9 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 9-65 | Penalties | 5-51 |
| 31:08 | Possession | 28:52 |
Costliest call
Q4 11:13 SHSU go for it on 4th & 18 at LT 23. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 1.26 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:08LTAndrew Burnette 67 Yd Run (Drew Henderson Kick)14–55
- Q4 11:13LTJacob Fields 85 Yd Interception Return (Drew Henderson Kick)14–48
- Q3 3:13SHSUElijah Green 80 Yd Run (Christian Pavon Kick)14–41
- Q3 3:25LTClay Thevenin 25 Yd Run (Drew Henderson Kick)7–41
- Q3 5:53LTOmiri Wiggins 16 Yd Run (Drew Henderson Kick)7–35
- Q3 9:23SHSUElijah Green 28 Yd Run (Christian Pavon Kick)7–27
- Q2 6:44LTBlake Baker 1 Yd Run (Drew Henderson PAT failed)0–27
- Q2 13:39LTClay Thevenin 50 Yd Run (Drew Henderson Kick)0–21
- Q1 6:33LTClay Thevenin 6 Yd Run (Drew Henderson Kick)0–14
- Q1 11:48LTDevin Gandy 36 Yd pass from Blake Baker (Drew Henderson Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (LT Elo 1378, SHSU Elo 1139 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects LT -12 (79% to win) — 4.5 points clear of SHSU's market line of -16.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| SHSU | LT | |
|---|---|---|
| -30.3 (#134) | CORE overall | -2.2 (#70) |
| -15 / +15 | offense / defense | -6 / -4 |
| 1.26 | points / drive | 2.08 |
| 2.93 | allowed / drive | 1.61 |
| 34% | three-and-outs | 31% |
| +3 | pass over expected | -9 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →