#9Clay Thevenin

RB·Louisiana Tech·2025

Clay Thevenin is a Pass-Catching Back for Louisiana Tech. Clay's 2025 season ranks in the 3th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 160 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Clay Thevenin's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Rushing

634 Rush yards8 Rush TD131 Carries4.8 Yards/carry

Receiving

33 Receptions269 Rec yards0 Rec TD8.2 Yards/rec

Returns

7 Kick returns93 KR yards0 KR TD

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs RB peers

Efficiency3
Volume54
Explosiveness36
Consistency53
Receiving100

Player type

Pass-Catching Back

Third-down weapon out of the backfield. Routes, hands, and separation in coverage define this role as much as rushing.

3rd-down backReceiving threatPass protection

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)3th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency53th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.17 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.66 EPA/play in Wk 10 vs Sam Houston (SP+ -28).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsSE Louisiana	W24-0	—	6	61	10.2	1	—	—	—	0.48
2	@LSU	L7-23	10.3	7	22	3.1	0	3	9	0	-0.17
3	vsNew Mexico State	W49-14	-15.5	11	68	6.2	0	—	—	—	0.27
4	vsSouthern Miss	W30-20	-7.1	7	11	1.6	1	1	17	0	0.27
5	@UTEP	W30-11	-17.5	19	68	3.6	1	—	—	—	-0.18
7	@Kennesaw State	L7-35	-5.4	11	31	2.8	0	3	26	0	0.04
9	vsWestern Kentucky	L27-28	1.6	12	35	2.9	0	6	52	0	-0.11
10	vsSam Houston	W55-14	-27.8	11	143	13.0	3	3	5	0	0.66
11	@Delaware	L24-25	-10.9	10	64	6.4	2	3	42	0	0.41
12	@Washington State	L3-28	3.8	7	13	1.9	0	2	15	0	0.03
13	vsLiberty	W34-28	-9.0	10	43	4.3	0	4	25	0	-0.07
14	@Missouri State	W42-30	-10.7	10	46	4.6	0	4	60	0	0.43
20	vsCoastal Carolina	W23-14	-15.1	10	29	2.9	0	4	18	0	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

18.9%

Passing plays

11.2%

Rushing plays

24.5%

Standard downs

19.9%

Passing downs

16.6%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.09
Passing downs: 0.30
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.47 / 0.04

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).