| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PUR | 0 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 13 |
| WASH | 7 | 21 | 14 | 7 | 49 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (WASH Elo 1699, PUR Elo 1331) plus home-field advantage. That projects WASH -17.1 (90% to win) — 2.1 points of value on WASH versus the market line of -15.
WASH up 39 entering the 4th quarter. Across 218 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Purdue 13, Washington 49.
Yes — the model's pick (WASH) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had WASH pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(07:15) #4 J.Washington rush right for 68 yards gain to the PUR00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:05, 1ST DOWN. #40 I.Jeffries injured on the play #95 G.Gross kick attempt good (H: #45 L.Dunne, LS: #33 R.Kean)
(12:07) Shotgun #2 D.Williams Jr. pass complete deep middle to #13 A.Harris caught at PUR13, for 61 yards to the PUR00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:59, 1ST DOWN #95 G.Gross kick attempt good (H: #45 L.Dunne, LS: #33 R.Kean)
(13:21) Shotgun Washington rush middle for 14 yards loss to the WASH42 fumbled by Washington at WASH42 recovered by PUR #58 B.Ishmail at WASH42, End Of Play
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