Purdue vs. Washington: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
PURTeam statsWASH
- Q4 1:54WASHKai Horton 2 Yd Run (Grady Gross Kick)13–49
- Q4 7:15PUREJ Horton Jr. 9 Yd pass from Malachi Singleton (Spencer Porath Kick)13–42
- Q4 12:15PURSpencer Porath 53 Yd Field Goal 6–42
- Q3 3:27WASHDezmen Roebuck 2 Yd pass from Demond Williams Jr. (Grady Gross Kick)3–42
- Q3 7:02PURSpencer Porath 41 Yd Field Goal 3–35
- Q3 11:59WASHAudric Harris 61 Yd pass from Demond Williams Jr. (Grady Gross Kick)0–35
- Q2 0:55WASHAdam Mohammed 5 Yd Run (Grady Gross Kick)0–28
- Q2 7:05WASHJordan Washington 68 Yd Run (Grady Gross Kick)0–21
- Q2 9:07WASHAdam Mohammed 1 Yd Run (Grady Gross Kick)0–14
- Q1 3:30WASHAdam Mohammed 1 Yd Run (Grady Gross Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- PUR played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and WASH did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.4 vs 3rd & 3.7
- PassMalachi Singleton 16/28, 150 YDS, 1 TD
- RushEJ Horton Jr. 1 CAR, 31 YDS
- RecNitro Tuggle 3 REC, 57 YDS
- PassDemond Williams Jr. 16/19, 257 YDS, 2 TD
- RushJordan Washington 5 CAR, 108 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDecker DeGraaf 5 REC, 91 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsWASH up 39 entering the 4th quarter. Across 218 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 3:30WASH +9%
#24 A.Mohammed rush middle for 1 yard gain to the PUR00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 9:01WASH +5%
Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass incomplete short middle to #13 E.Horton thrown to PUR43 broken up by #7 E.Prysock PENALTY PUR Ineligible Downfield on Pass (#74 J.St. John) 5…
FAQ
What was the final score of Purdue vs. Washington?
Purdue 13, Washington 49.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (WASH) was correct.
| PUR | WASH | |
|---|---|---|
| 267 | Total yards | 506 |
| 167 | Passing yards | 294 |
| 100 | Rushing yards | 212 |
| 14 | First downs | 24 |
| 5-14 | 3rd down | 7-10 |
| 1-3 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 17/34 | Comp/Att | 18/22 |
| 4.9 | Yards per pass | 13.4 |
| 3.3 | Yards per rush | 5.3 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 7-64 | Penalties | 4-50 |
| 28:52 | Possession | 31:08 |
Costliest call
Q1 11:43 PUR punt on 4th & 11 at WASH 43. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.13 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:54WASHKai Horton 2 Yd Run (Grady Gross Kick)13–49
- Q4 7:15PUREJ Horton Jr. 9 Yd pass from Malachi Singleton (Spencer Porath Kick)13–42
- Q4 12:15PURSpencer Porath 53 Yd Field Goal 6–42
- Q3 3:27WASHDezmen Roebuck 2 Yd pass from Demond Williams Jr. (Grady Gross Kick)3–42
- Q3 7:02PURSpencer Porath 41 Yd Field Goal 3–35
- Q3 11:59WASHAudric Harris 61 Yd pass from Demond Williams Jr. (Grady Gross Kick)0–35
- Q2 0:55WASHAdam Mohammed 5 Yd Run (Grady Gross Kick)0–28
- Q2 7:05WASHJordan Washington 68 Yd Run (Grady Gross Kick)0–21
- Q2 9:07WASHAdam Mohammed 1 Yd Run (Grady Gross Kick)0–14
- Q1 3:30WASHAdam Mohammed 1 Yd Run (Grady Gross Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (WASH Elo 1699, PUR Elo 1331 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects WASH -17.1 (87% to win) — 2.1 points clear of WASH's market line of -15. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesWashington leads 8–2–1 · 45% have been one-possession games
| PUR | WASH | |
|---|---|---|
| -9.5 (#93) | CORE overall | +21.7 (#11) |
| -4 / +5 | offense / defense | +13 / -9 |
| 1.57 | points / drive | 3.06 |
| 3.07 | allowed / drive | 1.93 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 19% |
| +3 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →