Oregon State vs. Oregon: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ORSTTeam statsORE
- Q4 5:05OREAtticus Sappington 28 Yd Field Goal 7–41
- Q4 14:20OREGary Bryant Jr. 49 Yd pass from Dante Moore (Atticus Sappington Kick)7–38
- Q3 1:01OREAtticus Sappington 24 Yd Field Goal 7–31
- Q3 8:18OREJeremiah McClellan 13 Yd pass from Dante Moore (Gage Hurych Kick)7–28
- Q2 0:21OREJordon Davison 3 Yd Run (Atticus Sappington Kick)7–21
- Q2 5:40OREKenyon Sadiq 23 Yd pass from Dante Moore (Atticus Sappington Kick)7–14
- Q1 1:50ORSTAnthony Hankerson 1 Yd Run (Caleb Ojeda Kick)7–7
- Q1 12:10OREDakorien Moore 22 Yd pass from Dante Moore (Atticus Sappington Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassMaalik Murphy 5/18, 68 YDS
- RushAnthony Hankerson 14 CAR, 38 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTaz Reddicks 2 REC, 27 YDS
- PassDante Moore 21/31, 305 YDS, 4 TD
- RushJayden Limar 12 CAR, 70 YDS
- RecGary Bryant Jr. 3 REC, 65 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsORE up 24 entering the 4th quarter. Across 555 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Oregon State vs. Oregon?
Oregon State 7, Oregon 41.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ORE) was correct.
| ORST | ORE | |
|---|---|---|
| 147 | Total yards | 585 |
| 80 | Passing yards | 305 |
| 67 | Rushing yards | 280 |
| 8 | First downs | 29 |
| 4-12 | 3rd down | 4-10 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 7/22 | Comp/Att | 21/31 |
| 3.6 | Yards per pass | 9.8 |
| 2.6 | Yards per rush | 6.1 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 2-10 | Penalties | 5-40 |
| 23:05 | Possession | 36:55 |
Costliest call
Q3 12:16 ORE go for it on 4th & 4 at ORE 34. The model preferred punt, a gap of 0.42 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:05OREAtticus Sappington 28 Yd Field Goal 7–41
- Q4 14:20OREGary Bryant Jr. 49 Yd pass from Dante Moore (Atticus Sappington Kick)7–38
- Q3 1:01OREAtticus Sappington 24 Yd Field Goal 7–31
- Q3 8:18OREJeremiah McClellan 13 Yd pass from Dante Moore (Gage Hurych Kick)7–28
- Q2 0:21OREJordon Davison 3 Yd Run (Atticus Sappington Kick)7–21
- Q2 5:40OREKenyon Sadiq 23 Yd pass from Dante Moore (Atticus Sappington Kick)7–14
- Q1 1:50ORSTAnthony Hankerson 1 Yd Run (Caleb Ojeda Kick)7–7
- Q1 12:10OREDakorien Moore 22 Yd pass from Dante Moore (Atticus Sappington Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ORE Elo 1984, ORST Elo 1314 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ORE -29.2 (96% to win) — 4.8 points clear of ORST's market line of -34. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesOregon leads 57–46–6 · Oregon has won 3 straight · 41% have been one-possession games
| ORST | ORE | |
|---|---|---|
| -14.8 (#106) | CORE overall | +34.6 (#4) |
| -9 / +6 | offense / defense | +19 / -16 |
| 1.38 | points / drive | 3.09 |
| 2.61 | allowed / drive | 1.44 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 15% |
| +2 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →