| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORST | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| ORE | 7 | 14 | 10 | 10 | 41 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (ORE Elo 1984, ORST Elo 1314) plus home-field advantage. That projects ORE -29.2 (98% to win) — 4.8 points of value on ORST versus the market line of -34.
ORE up 24 entering the 4th quarter. Across 555 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Oregon State 7, Oregon 41.
Yes — the model's pick (ORE) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had ORE pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Dante Moore pass complete to Gary Bryant Jr. for 49 yds for a TD (Atticus Sappington KICK)
Dante Moore pass complete to Malik Benson for 31 yds to the ORST 29 for a 1ST down
James Ferguson-Reynolds run for 21 yds to the ORST 45 for a 1ST down
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