| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ODU | 7 | 21 | 10 | 7 | 45 |
| VT | 0 | 0 | 7 | 19 | 26 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Our model blends Elo ratings (VT Elo 1502, ODU Elo 1480) plus home-field advantage. That projects VT -3.3 (60% to win) — 2.2 points of value on ODU versus the market line of -5.5.
Pregame Win Probability
Pick: VT · 9 pts off the market line
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
Offense
Key matchups · Pro
- VT rush offense (0.20 PPA) vs. ODU rush defense (0.01 allowed) — edge VT.
- VT pass offense (0.15 PPA) vs. ODU pass defense (0.09 allowed) — edge VT.
- ODU rush offense (0.14 PPA) vs. VT rush defense (0.18 allowed) — edge VT.
Drive-by-drive
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
ODU up 31 entering the 4th quarter. Across 343 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Old Dominion vs. Virginia Tech?
Old Dominion 45, Virginia Tech 26.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked VT, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had VT pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.