Sat, Sep 13, 11:00 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ODU | 7 | 21 | 10 | 7 | 45 |
| VT | 0 | 0 | 7 | 19 | 26 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (VT Elo 1502, ODU Elo 1480) plus home-field advantage. That projects VT -3.3 (60% to win) — 2.2 points of value on ODU versus the market line of -5.5.
Pick: VT · 9 pts off the market line
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
ODU up 31 entering the 4th quarter. Across 343 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Old Dominion 45, Virginia Tech 26.
No — the model picked VT, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had VT pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
Kyron Drones pass complete to Ayden Greene for 67 yds to the ODU 10 for a 1ST down
Colton Joseph pass complete to TJ Johnson for 36 yds to the VT 21 for a 1ST down
Colton Joseph pass complete to Na'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding for 44 yds to the VT 49 for a 1ST down Virginia Tech Penalty, (Yards) declined for a 1ST down
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