Oklahoma
5-0·SEC· Elo 1769
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OU | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| TEX | 0 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 23 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (TEX Elo 1936, OU Elo 1769) on a neutral field. That projects TEX -6.7 (69% to win) — 4.2 points of value on TEX versus the market line of -2.5.
TEX up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Oklahoma 6, Texas 23.
Yes — the model's pick (TEX) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had TEX pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
John Mateer pass intercepted, touchback. Malik Muhammad return for no gain
Quintrevion Wisner run for 37 yds to the OU 37 for a 1ST down
John Mateer pass complete to Isaiah Sategna III for 23 yds to the OU 48 for a 1ST down
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