Oklahoma vs. Texas: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
OUTeam statsTEX
- Q4 2:59TEXMason Shipley 39 Yd Field Goal 6–23
- Q4 9:54TEXRyan Niblett 75 Yd Punt Return (Mason Shipley Kick)6–20
- Q3 0:21TEXMason Shipley 48 Yd Field Goal 6–13
- Q3 7:49TEXDeAndre Moore Jr. 12 Yd pass from Arch Manning (Mason Shipley Kick)6–10
- Q2 4:24TEXMason Shipley 22 Yd Field Goal 6–3
- Q2 9:09OUTate Sandell 41 Yd Field Goal 6–0
- Q1 11:49OUTate Sandell 42 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
- PassJohn Mateer 20/38, 202 YDS, 3 INT
- RushTory Blaylock 11 CAR, 33 YDS
- RecDeion Burks 5 REC, 64 YDS
- PassArch Manning 21/27, 166 YDS, 1 TD
- RushQuintrevion Wisner 22 CAR, 94 YDS
- RecDeAndre Moore Jr. 3 REC, 50 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTEX up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 7:49TEX +25%
Arch Manning pass complete to DeAndre Moore Jr. for 12 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)
- Q3 0:21TEX +18%
Mason Shipley 48 yd FG GOOD
- Q2 9:09OU +14%
Tate Sandell 41 yd FG GOOD
- Q2 4:24TEX +12%
Mason Shipley 22 yd FG GOOD
- Q4 11:33TEX +8%
Mason Shipley 56 yd FG MISSED
- Q4 9:54TEX +7%
Grayson Miller punt for 48 yds, Ryan Niblett returns for 75 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Oklahoma vs. Texas?
Oklahoma 6, Texas 23.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TEX) was correct.
| OU | TEX | |
|---|---|---|
| 258 | Total yards | 302 |
| 210 | Passing yards | 166 |
| 48 | Rushing yards | 136 |
| 16 | First downs | 15 |
| 6-17 | 3rd down | 10-17 |
| 2-4 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 21/39 | Comp/Att | 21/27 |
| 5.4 | Yards per pass | 6.1 |
| 1.6 | Yards per rush | 3.9 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 5-35 | Penalties | 4-31 |
| 29:02 | Possession | 30:58 |
Costliest call
Q4 11:33 TEX field goal on 4th & 3 at OU 37. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.85 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:59TEXMason Shipley 39 Yd Field Goal 6–23
- Q4 9:54TEXRyan Niblett 75 Yd Punt Return (Mason Shipley Kick)6–20
- Q3 0:21TEXMason Shipley 48 Yd Field Goal 6–13
- Q3 7:49TEXDeAndre Moore Jr. 12 Yd pass from Arch Manning (Mason Shipley Kick)6–10
- Q2 4:24TEXMason Shipley 22 Yd Field Goal 6–3
- Q2 9:09OUTate Sandell 41 Yd Field Goal 6–0
- Q1 11:49OUTate Sandell 42 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TEX Elo 1936, OU Elo 1769 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects TEX -6.7 (68% to win) — 4.2 points clear of TEX's market line of -2.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#116 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds · #2 of 57 in 2025 by biggest poll gap.
The 2025 upset archive →Texas leads 62–51–5 · Texas has won 2 straight · 48% have been one-possession games
| OU | TEX | |
|---|---|---|
| +17.8 (#21) | CORE overall | +14.3 (#28) |
| -2 / -19 | offense / defense | +5 / -9 |
| 1.93 | points / drive | 2.55 |
| 1.22 | allowed / drive | 1.74 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| +5 | pass over expected | +4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →