Oklahoma State vs. Arizona: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
OKSTTeam statsARIZ
- Q4 4:12ARIZMichael Salgado-Medina 57 Yd Field Goal 13–41
- Q4 8:40OKSTLaDainian Fields 55 Yd Interception Return (Logan Ward Kick)13–38
- Q3 1:51ARIZChris Hunter 29 Yd pass from Noah Fifita (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)6–38
- Q3 2:58ARIZJavin Whatley 21 Yd pass from Noah Fifita (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)6–31
- Q2 0:00ARIZMichael Salgado-Medina 34 Yd Field Goal 6–24
- Q2 1:05OKSTLogan Ward 46 Yd Field Goal 6–21
- Q2 6:20ARIZLuke Wysong 47 Yd pass from Noah Fifita (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)3–21
- Q1 1:26ARIZTre Spivey 22 Yd pass from Noah Fifita (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)3–14
- Q1 5:59OKSTLogan Ward 47 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 10:08ARIZTre Spivey 13 Yd pass from Noah Fifita (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassZane Flores 9/20, 47 YDS, 1 INT
- RushZane Flores 5 CAR, 31 YDS
- RecGavin Freeman 3 REC, 26 YDS
- PassNoah Fifita 28/38, 376 YDS, 5 TD, 1 INT
- RushIsmail Mahdi 14 CAR, 34 YDS
- RecLuke Wysong 5 REC, 92 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsARIZ up 32 entering the 4th quarter. Across 373 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Oklahoma State vs. Arizona?
Oklahoma State 13, Arizona 41.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ARIZ) was correct.
| OKST | ARIZ | |
|---|---|---|
| 158 | Total yards | 478 |
| 69 | Passing yards | 433 |
| 89 | Rushing yards | 45 |
| 7 | First downs | 28 |
| 3-17 | 3rd down | 5-12 |
| 1-3 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 13/28 | Comp/Att | 31/43 |
| 2.5 | Yards per pass | 10.1 |
| 2.9 | Yards per rush | 1.4 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 4-45 | Penalties | 3-30 |
| 25:30 | Possession | 34:30 |
Costliest call
Q3 10:25 ARIZ punt on 4th & 3 at OKST 45. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.92 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:12ARIZMichael Salgado-Medina 57 Yd Field Goal 13–41
- Q4 8:40OKSTLaDainian Fields 55 Yd Interception Return (Logan Ward Kick)13–38
- Q3 1:51ARIZChris Hunter 29 Yd pass from Noah Fifita (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)6–38
- Q3 2:58ARIZJavin Whatley 21 Yd pass from Noah Fifita (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)6–31
- Q2 0:00ARIZMichael Salgado-Medina 34 Yd Field Goal 6–24
- Q2 1:05OKSTLogan Ward 46 Yd Field Goal 6–21
- Q2 6:20ARIZLuke Wysong 47 Yd pass from Noah Fifita (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)3–21
- Q1 1:26ARIZTre Spivey 22 Yd pass from Noah Fifita (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)3–14
- Q1 5:59OKSTLogan Ward 47 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 10:08ARIZTre Spivey 13 Yd pass from Noah Fifita (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ARIZ Elo 1422, OKST Elo 1173 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ARIZ -12.4 (80% to win) — 9.6 points clear of OKST's market line of -22. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesThe series is level at 5–5 · Arizona has won 2 straight · 10% have been one-possession games
| OKST | ARIZ | |
|---|---|---|
| -22.9 (#130) | CORE overall | +12.4 (#33) |
| -12 / +11 | offense / defense | +5 / -8 |
| 1.02 | points / drive | 2.61 |
| 2.92 | allowed / drive | 1.75 |
| 38% | three-and-outs | 20% |
| -1 | pass over expected | +5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →