Arizona StadiumConference gameClosing line: ARIZ -22 · ARIZ covered
Sat, Oct 4, 7:00 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OKST | 3 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 13 |
| ARIZ | 14 | 10 | 14 | 3 | 41 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (ARIZ Elo 1422, OKST Elo 1173) plus home-field advantage. That projects ARIZ -12.4 (82% to win) — 9.6 points of value on OKST versus the market line of -22.
ARIZ up 32 entering the 4th quarter. Across 373 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Oklahoma State 13, Arizona 41.
Yes — the model's pick (ARIZ) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had ARIZ pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Braedyn Locke pass intercepted LaDainian Fields return for 55 yds for a TD (Logan Ward KICK)
Noah Fifita run for no gain to the OKST 1 Noah Fifita fumbled, recovered by OKST Bryan McCoy Jr.
Noah Fifita pass complete to Luke Wysong for 47 yds for a TD (Michael Salgado-Medina KICK)
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