| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OSU | 17 | 0 | 10 | 7 | 34 |
| WIS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (WIS Elo 1459, OSU Elo 2074) plus home-field advantage. That projects WIS +22.2 (5% to win) — 2.3 points of value on WIS versus the market line of +24.5.
OSU up 27 entering the 4th quarter. Across 532 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Ohio State 34, Wisconsin 0.
Yes — the model's pick (OSU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had OSU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Julian Sayin pass complete to Carnell Tate for 33 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)
Hunter Simmons pass complete to Lance Mason for 24 yds to the OSU 33 for a 1ST down Ohio State Penalty, Defensive Offside (John Ferlmann) declined for a 1ST down
Julian Sayin pass complete to Carnell Tate for 19 yds to the WIS 24 for a 1ST down
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