Ohio State vs. Wisconsin: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
OSUTeam statsWIS
- Q4 5:35OSUBrandon Inniss 13 Yd pass from Julian Sayin (Jayden Fielding Kick)34–0
- Q3 1:15OSUWill Kacmarek 2 Yd pass from Julian Sayin (Jayden Fielding Kick)27–0
- Q3 8:42OSUJayden Fielding 37 Yd Field Goal 20–0
- Q1 0:04OSUCarnell Tate 10 Yd pass from Julian Sayin (Jayden Fielding Kick)17–0
- Q1 4:40OSUJayden Fielding 38 Yd Field Goal 10–0
- Q1 8:25OSUCarnell Tate 33 Yd pass from Julian Sayin (Jayden Fielding Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- WIS played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and OSU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.5 vs 3rd & 6.2
- PassJulian Sayin 36/42, 393 YDS, 4 TD
- RushIsaiah West 9 CAR, 55 YDS
- RecCarnell Tate 6 REC, 111 YDS, 2 TD
- PassHunter Simmons 6/12, 54 YDS, 1 INT
- RushGideon Ituka 4 CAR, 35 YDS
- RecLance Mason 2 REC, 31 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsOSU up 27 entering the 4th quarter. Across 532 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 8:25OSU +6%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Carnell Tate for 33 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Ohio State vs. Wisconsin?
Ohio State 34, Wisconsin 0.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (OSU) was correct.
| OSU | WIS | |
|---|---|---|
| 491 | Total yards | 144 |
| 393 | Passing yards | 49 |
| 98 | Rushing yards | 95 |
| 26 | First downs | 9 |
| 5-11 | 3rd down | 2-11 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 36/42 | Comp/Att | 7/15 |
| 9.4 | Yards per pass | 3.3 |
| 3.5 | Yards per rush | 3.1 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 5-30 | Penalties | 2-10 |
| 33:57 | Possession | 26:03 |
Costliest call
Q4 15:00 WIS go for it on 4th & 19 at WIS 16. The model preferred punt, a gap of 1.63 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:35OSUBrandon Inniss 13 Yd pass from Julian Sayin (Jayden Fielding Kick)34–0
- Q3 1:15OSUWill Kacmarek 2 Yd pass from Julian Sayin (Jayden Fielding Kick)27–0
- Q3 8:42OSUJayden Fielding 37 Yd Field Goal 20–0
- Q1 0:04OSUCarnell Tate 10 Yd pass from Julian Sayin (Jayden Fielding Kick)17–0
- Q1 4:40OSUJayden Fielding 38 Yd Field Goal 10–0
- Q1 8:25OSUCarnell Tate 33 Yd pass from Julian Sayin (Jayden Fielding Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (WIS Elo 1459, OSU Elo 2074 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects WIS +22.2 (9% to win) — 2.3 points clear of WIS's market line of +24.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesOhio State leads 64–18–5 · Ohio State has won 11 straight · 40% have been one-possession games
| OSU | WIS | |
|---|---|---|
| +39.2 (#1) | CORE overall | -3.3 (#72) |
| +14 / -26 | offense / defense | -11 / -8 |
| 3.43 | points / drive | 1.23 |
| 1.15 | allowed / drive | 2.09 |
| 13% | three-and-outs | 35% |
| +7 | pass over expected | -8 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →