| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OSU | 0 | 24 | 0 | 10 | 34 |
| PUR | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 10 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (PUR Elo 1310, OSU Elo 2146) plus home-field advantage. That projects PUR +31 (1% to win), essentially in line with the market.
OSU up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 671 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Ohio State 34, Purdue 10.
Yes — the model's pick (OSU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had OSU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
End of 1st quarter.
(06:40) Shotgun #10 J.Sayin pass intercepted by #91 C.Nunnally at PUR00, Touchback
End of 4th quarter.
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