Ohio State vs. Purdue: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
OSUTeam statsPUR
- Q4 1:45PURJesse Watson 7 Yd pass from Malachi Singleton (Spencer Porath Kick)34–10
- Q4 6:19OSUCJ Donaldson run for 1 yd, for a TD (J. Fielding KICK)34–3
- Q4 12:41OSUJayden Fielding 45 Yd Field Goal 27–3
- Q2 0:03OSUJayden Fielding 49 Yd Field Goal 24–3
- Q2 1:12OSULincoln Kienholz 3 Yd Run (Jayden Fielding Kick)21–3
- Q2 7:18OSUJeremiah Smith 35 Yd pass from Julian Sayin (Jayden Fielding Kick)14–3
- Q2 14:16OSUCJ Donaldson 1 Yd Run (Jayden Fielding Kick)7–3
- Q1 4:23PURSpencer Porath 40 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassJulian Sayin 27/33, 303 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushBo Jackson 14 CAR, 75 YDS
- RecJeremiah Smith 10 REC, 137 YDS, 1 TD
- PassRyan Browne 10/19, 76 YDS, 1 INT
- RushAntonio Harris 13 CAR, 45 YDS
- RecRico Walker 1 REC, 30 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsOSU up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 671 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Ohio State vs. Purdue?
Ohio State 34, Purdue 10.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (OSU) was correct.
| OSU | PUR | |
|---|---|---|
| 473 | Total yards | 186 |
| 303 | Passing yards | 94 |
| 170 | Rushing yards | 92 |
| 30 | First downs | 13 |
| 9-13 | 3rd down | 3-9 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 27/33 | Comp/Att | 13/22 |
| 9.2 | Yards per pass | 4.3 |
| 4.0 | Yards per rush | 4.2 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 6-63 | Penalties | 2-13 |
| 40:53 | Possession | 19:07 |
Costliest call
Q2 13:02 PUR punt on 4th & 3 at PUR 44. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.45 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:45PURJesse Watson 7 Yd pass from Malachi Singleton (Spencer Porath Kick)34–10
- Q4 6:19OSUCJ Donaldson run for 1 yd, for a TD (J. Fielding KICK)34–3
- Q4 12:41OSUJayden Fielding 45 Yd Field Goal 27–3
- Q2 0:03OSUJayden Fielding 49 Yd Field Goal 24–3
- Q2 1:12OSULincoln Kienholz 3 Yd Run (Jayden Fielding Kick)21–3
- Q2 7:18OSUJeremiah Smith 35 Yd pass from Julian Sayin (Jayden Fielding Kick)14–3
- Q2 14:16OSUCJ Donaldson 1 Yd Run (Jayden Fielding Kick)7–3
- Q1 4:23PURSpencer Porath 40 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (PUR Elo 1310, OSU Elo 2146 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects PUR +31 (4% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesOhio State leads 44–15–2 · Ohio State has won 4 straight · 33% have been one-possession games
| OSU | PUR | |
|---|---|---|
| +39.2 (#1) | CORE overall | -9.5 (#93) |
| +14 / -26 | offense / defense | -4 / +5 |
| 3.43 | points / drive | 1.57 |
| 1.15 | allowed / drive | 3.07 |
| 13% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| +7 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →