Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)Closing line: ND +-31 · BC covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ND | 0 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 25 |
| BC | 0 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
Team stats
NDthis game · better side highlightedBC
458
Total yards
281299
Passing yards
269159
Rushing yards
1222
First downs
213-10 · 30%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
BC 1299
ND 2193
Projected spread
BC +33.4
incl. home edge
Model pick
ND
99% to win
Market spread
BC +31
sportsbook line
Model edge
ND
2.4 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
1%
BC · market 4%
Our model blends Elo ratings (BC Elo 1299, ND Elo 2193) plus home-field advantage. That projects BC +33.4 (1% to win) — 2.4 points of value on ND versus the market line of +31.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
BC (top)ND (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: BC 0%
Key matchups · Pro
- BC pass offense (0.25 PPA) vs. ND pass defense (0.09 allowed) — edge BC.
- ND rush offense (0.25 PPA) vs. BC rush defense (0.12 allowed) — edge ND.
- ND pass offense (0.45 PPA) vs. BC pass defense (0.39 allowed) — edge ND.
Drive-by-drive
ND 4/11 scoring drives← own end zone →BC 2/10 scoring drives
NDPUNT3 pl, 19 yds· own 25Q1
BCPUNT3 pl, -2 yds· own 30Q1
NDDOWNS8 pl, 37 yds· own 30Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
ND up 8 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,588 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
85%
ND went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Notre Dame vs. Boston College?
Notre Dame 25, Boston College 10.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ND) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had ND pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.