Notre Dame vs. Boston College: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
NDTeam statsBC
- Q4 11:07NDJeremiyah Love 94 Yd Run (Erik Schmidt Kick)25–10
- Q3 0:32NDJeremiyah Love 3 Yd Run (Marcello Diomede PAT failed)18–10
- Q3 3:36BCLuca Lombardo 25 Yd Field Goal 12–10
- Q2 0:22BCReed Harris 25 Yd pass from Grayson James (Luca Lombardo Kick)12–7
- Q2 1:53NDWill Pauling 44 Yd pass from CJ Carr (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)12–0
- Q2 14:52NDMalachi Fields 40 Yd pass from CJ Carr (Noah Burnette PAT failed)6–0
How the model called it
- PassCJ Carr 18/25, 299 YDS, 2 TD
- RushJeremiyah Love 17 CAR, 136 YDS, 2 TD
- RecJordan Faison 4 REC, 82 YDS
- PassGrayson James 25/37, 240 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushTurbo Richard 16 CAR, 26 YDS
- RecLewis Bond 8 REC, 92 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsND up 8 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,588 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 0:32ND +6%
Jeremiyah Love 3 Yd Run (Marcello Diomede PAT failed)
FAQ
What was the final score of Notre Dame vs. Boston College?
Notre Dame 25, Boston College 10.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ND) was correct.
| ND | BC | |
|---|---|---|
| 458 | Total yards | 281 |
| 299 | Passing yards | 269 |
| 159 | Rushing yards | 12 |
| 22 | First downs | 21 |
| 3-10 | 3rd down | 8-18 |
| 2-4 | 4th down | 2-4 |
| 18/26 | Comp/Att | 30/45 |
| 11.5 | Yards per pass | 6.0 |
| 5.5 | Yards per rush | 0.4 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 7-67 | Penalties | 9-80 |
| 24:33 | Possession | 35:27 |
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 11:07NDJeremiyah Love 94 Yd Run (Erik Schmidt Kick)25–10
- Q3 0:32NDJeremiyah Love 3 Yd Run (Marcello Diomede PAT failed)18–10
- Q3 3:36BCLuca Lombardo 25 Yd Field Goal 12–10
- Q2 0:22BCReed Harris 25 Yd pass from Grayson James (Luca Lombardo Kick)12–7
- Q2 1:53NDWill Pauling 44 Yd pass from CJ Carr (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)12–0
- Q2 14:52NDMalachi Fields 40 Yd pass from CJ Carr (Noah Burnette PAT failed)6–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BC Elo 1299, ND Elo 2193 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects BC +33.4 (3% to win) — 2.4 points clear of ND's market line of +31. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesNotre Dame leads 19–9 · Notre Dame has won 10 straight · 43% have been one-possession games
| ND | BC | |
|---|---|---|
| +38.3 (#2) | CORE overall | -10.0 (#95) |
| +20 / -18 | offense / defense | -1 / +9 |
| 3.84 | points / drive | 1.81 |
| 1.28 | allowed / drive | 3.19 |
| 17% | three-and-outs | 28% |
| +0 | pass over expected | +7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →