North Carolina vs. Syracuse: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UNCTeam statsSYR
- Q4 10:35UNCJordan Shipp 21 Yd pass from Gio Lopez (Rece Verhoff Kick)27–10
- Q3 0:08UNCDemon June 5 Yd Run (Rece Verhoff Kick)20–10
- Q3 13:26UNCDemon June 72 Yd pass from Gio Lopez (Rece Verhoff Kick)13–10
- Q2 0:36UNCRece Verhoff 43 Yd Field Goal 6–10
- Q2 12:17SYRTripp Woody 31 Yd Field Goal 3–10
- Q1 4:38SYRAnwar Sparrow 51 Yd Fumble Return (Tripp Woody Kick)3–7
- Q1 7:59UNCRece Verhoff 24 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
- PassGio Lopez 15/19, 216 YDS, 2 TD
- RushDemon June 13 CAR, 101 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDemon June 2 REC, 81 YDS, 1 TD
- PassJoseph Filardi 4/18, 39 YDS
- RushYasin Willis 15 CAR, 66 YDS
- RecDarius Johnson 1 REC, 25 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUNC up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 13:26UNC +30%
Demon June 72 Yd pass from Gio Lopez (Rece Verhoff Kick)
- Q1 14:49SYR +20%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 G.Lopez rush middle for 15 yards gain to the UNC40 (#8 D.Reese), 1ST DOWN
- Q3 6:47UNC +18%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass complete short left to #27 J.McGill caught at UNC17, for 2 yards loss to the UNC18 (#1 D.Samuel Jr.)
- Q3 7:44UNC +17%
PENALTY SYRA Delay Of Game 5 yards from UNC37 to UNC42. NO PLAY
- Q2 0:36UNC +12%
Rece Verhoff 43 Yd Field Goal
- Q3 0:01UNC +10%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 Y.Willis rush middle for 7 yards gain to the SYRA32 (#40 T.Thompson; #12 G.Smith III)
FAQ
What was the final score of North Carolina vs. Syracuse?
North Carolina 27, Syracuse 10.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked SYR, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| UNC | SYR | |
|---|---|---|
| 426 | Total yards | 152 |
| 216 | Passing yards | 39 |
| 210 | Rushing yards | 113 |
| 20 | First downs | 12 |
| 4-13 | 3rd down | 3-12 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 15/19 | Comp/Att | 4/18 |
| 11.4 | Yards per pass | 2.2 |
| 4.9 | Yards per rush | 3.5 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 6-44 | Penalties | 3-25 |
| 35:29 | Possession | 24:31 |
Costliest call
Q2 6:12 UNC punt on 4th & 1 at UNC 30. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.07 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 10:35UNCJordan Shipp 21 Yd pass from Gio Lopez (Rece Verhoff Kick)27–10
- Q3 0:08UNCDemon June 5 Yd Run (Rece Verhoff Kick)20–10
- Q3 13:26UNCDemon June 72 Yd pass from Gio Lopez (Rece Verhoff Kick)13–10
- Q2 0:36UNCRece Verhoff 43 Yd Field Goal 6–10
- Q2 12:17SYRTripp Woody 31 Yd Field Goal 3–10
- Q1 4:38SYRAnwar Sparrow 51 Yd Fumble Return (Tripp Woody Kick)3–7
- Q1 7:59UNCRece Verhoff 24 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (SYR Elo 1362, UNC Elo 1352 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects SYR -2.8 (59% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesNorth Carolina leads 5–3 · North Carolina has won 3 straight · 38% have been one-possession games
| UNC | SYR | |
|---|---|---|
| -10.5 (#97) | CORE overall | -20.9 (#127) |
| -8 / +3 | offense / defense | -14 / +7 |
| 1.67 | points / drive | 1.12 |
| 2.43 | allowed / drive | 2.89 |
| 37% | three-and-outs | 32% |
| +2 | pass over expected | -2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →