Missouri vs. Vanderbilt: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MIZTeam statsVAN
- Q4 1:52VANDiego Pavia 1 Yd Run (Brock Taylor Kick)10–17
- Q4 12:49MIZJude James 6 Yd pass from Matt Zollers (Robert Meyer Kick)10–10
- Q3 3:51VANMakhilyn Young 80 Yd Run (Brock Taylor Kick)3–10
- Q2 2:00VANBrock Taylor 38 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q2 5:11MIZRobert Meyer 39 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- VAN lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 12% explosive on a 35% success rate
- PassMatt Zollers 14/23, 138 YDS, 1 TD
- RushAhmad Hardy 20 CAR, 97 YDS
- RecKevin Coleman Jr. 7 REC, 109 YDS
- PassDiego Pavia 10/19, 129 YDS, 1 INT
- RushMakhilyn Young 4 CAR, 86 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTre Richardson 3 REC, 58 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsVAN up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 1:52VAN +59%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia rush right for 1 yard gain to the MIZZOU00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q4 12:49MIZ +38%
Shotgun #5 M.Zollers pass complete short left to #89 J.James caught at VANDY00, for 6 yards to the VANDY00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q3 3:51VAN +35%
No Huddle-Shotgun #22 M.Young rush right for 80 yards gain to the MIZZOU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q4 11:11MIZ +14%
Shotgun #29 A.Hardy rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MIZZOU26 (#2 R.Fontenette; #10 L.Patterson)
- Q4 11:11VAN +14%
#38 N.Haberer punt 45 yards to the MIZZOU24, out of bounds at MIZZOU24
- Q2 5:11MIZ +13%
#88 R.Meyer field goal attempt from 39 yards GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Missouri vs. Vanderbilt?
Missouri 10, Vanderbilt 17.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (VAN) was correct.
| MIZ | VAN | |
|---|---|---|
| 376 | Total yards | 265 |
| 206 | Passing yards | 129 |
| 170 | Rushing yards | 136 |
| 22 | First downs | 13 |
| 5-16 | 3rd down | 3-10 |
| 4-5 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 23/37 | Comp/Att | 10/19 |
| 5.6 | Yards per pass | 6.8 |
| 4.1 | Yards per rush | 5.2 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 8-88 | Penalties | 8-83 |
| 36:12 | Possession | 23:48 |
Costliest call
Q1 2:25 MIZ punt on 4th & 8 at VAN 44. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.21 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:52VANDiego Pavia 1 Yd Run (Brock Taylor Kick)10–17
- Q4 12:49MIZJude James 6 Yd pass from Matt Zollers (Robert Meyer Kick)10–10
- Q3 3:51VANMakhilyn Young 80 Yd Run (Brock Taylor Kick)3–10
- Q2 2:00VANBrock Taylor 38 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q2 5:11MIZRobert Meyer 39 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (VAN Elo 1753, MIZ Elo 1791 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects VAN -0.9 (54% to win) — 2.1 points clear of MIZ's market line of -3. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesMissouri leads 10–5–1 · 56% have been one-possession games
| MIZ | VAN | |
|---|---|---|
| +20.9 (#12) | CORE overall | +25.4 (#8) |
| +5 / -15 | offense / defense | +28 / +2 |
| 2.45 | points / drive | 3.85 |
| 1.57 | allowed / drive | 2.40 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 16% |
| -7 | pass over expected | +5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →