| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIZ | 0 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 10 |
| VAN | 0 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 17 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (VAN Elo 1753, MIZ Elo 1791) plus home-field advantage. That projects VAN -0.9 (53% to win) — 2.1 points of value on MIZ versus the market line of -3.
VAN up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Missouri 10, Vanderbilt 17.
Yes — the model's pick (VAN) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had VAN pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
No Huddle-Shotgun #22 M.Young rush right for 80 yards gain to the MIZZOU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:51, 1ST DOWN #88 B.Taylor kick attempt good (H: #38 N.Haberer, LS: #46 D.Harris)
(00:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 M.Zollers pass complete deep right to #3 K.Coleman Jr. caught at VANDY01, for 36 yards to the VANDY01 (#27 J.Lackey), 1ST DOWN
(11:21) Shotgun #9 B.Pribula rush middle for 1 yard gain to the VANDY01 (#29 M.Capers; #11 B.Longwell), TURNOVER ON DOWNS. #9 B.Pribula injured on the play
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