#3Kevin Coleman Jr.

WR·Missouri·2025

Kevin Coleman Jr. is a Slot Specialist WR for Missouri. Kevin's 2025 season ranks in the 100th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 93 plays — a elite rate for the WR.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Kevin Coleman Jr.'s projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Receiving

66 Receptions732 Rec yards1 Rec TD11.1 Yards/rec

Returns

15 Punt returns189 PR yards1 PR TD

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs WR peers

Efficiency100
Volume29
Explosiveness27
Consistency52
Pass-Down100

Player type

Slot Specialist WR

The offense's primary passing-down weapon — routes, separation, and reliability on 3rd down define this role.

3rd-down converterRoute technicianHigh passing-down share

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency52th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸8 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 1.33 EPA/play in Wk 9 vs Vanderbilt (SP+ 20).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Elite

Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Keytaon Thompson	Mississippi State	2017	70	0.460	1.2	32.2
Quadree Henderson	Pittsburgh	2016	63	0.530	1.6	33.4
DeAndre Hughes	Air Force	2021	60	0.470	1.3	28.2
Savion Williams	TCU	2024	56	0.450	1.1	25.2
Javion Posey	Florida Atlantic	2020	53	0.450	1.4	23.8

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
1	vsCentral Arkansas	W61-6	—	6	48	8.0	0	20	0.45
2	vsKansas	W42-31	4.1	10	126	12.6	1	50	1.27
3	vsLouisiana	W52-10	-10.1	8	84	10.5	0	20	0.63
4	vsSouth Carolina	W29-20	5.9	3	20	6.7	0	12	0.04
5	vsMassachusetts	W42-6	-36.6	12	108	9.0	0	17	0.58
7	vsAlabama	L24-27	14.8	1	2	2.0	0	2	-0.79
8	@Auburn	W23-17	11.6	4	61	15.3	0	20	0.74
9	@Vanderbilt	L10-17	20.3	7	109	15.6	0	36	1.33
11	vsTexas A&M	L17-38	20.7	1	1	1.0	0	1	-0.71
12	vsMississippi State	W49-27	4.1	4	41	10.3	0	17	0.41
13	@Oklahoma	L6-17	18.3	7	115	16.4	0	37	0.16
14	@Arkansas	W31-17	5.1	—	—	—	—	—	0.56
20	vsVirginia	L7-13	11.1	3	17	5.7	0	11	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

10.0%

Passing plays

21.8%

Rushing plays

1.7%

Standard downs

8.1%

Passing downs

14.7%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.32
Passing downs: 0.88
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.59 / 0.22

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).