| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOST | 3 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 13 |
| USC | 14 | 28 | 14 | 17 | 73 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (USC Elo 1676, MOST Elo 1500) plus home-field advantage. That projects USC -9.4 (76% to win) — 26.6 points of value on MOST versus the market line of -36.
USC up 43 entering the 4th quarter. Across 212 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Missouri State 13, USC 73.
Yes — the model's pick (USC) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had USC pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Jacob Clark pass intercepted Bishop Fitzgerald return for 39 yds for a TD (Ryon Sayeri KICK)
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Eli Sanders for 73 yds for a TD (Ryon Sayeri KICK)
King Miller run for 75 yds for a TD (Ryon Sayeri KICK)
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