Missouri State vs. USC: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MOSTTeam statsUSC
- Q4 4:46USCCarson Tabaracci 9 Yd pass from Husan Longstreet (William Weisberg Kick)13–73
- Q4 10:51USCRyon Sayeri 32 Yd Field Goal 13–66
- Q4 13:30USCHusan Longstreet 17 Yd Run (William Weisberg Kick)13–63
- Q3 5:30USCKing Miller 75 Yd Run (Ryon Sayeri Kick)13–56
- Q3 5:42MOSTYousef Obeid 46 Yd Field Goal 13–49
- Q3 10:26USCHusan Longstreet 5 Yd Run (Ryon Sayeri Kick)10–49
- Q2 0:25USCEli Sanders 73 Yd pass from Jayden Maiava (Ryon Sayeri Kick)10–42
- Q2 3:35USCJayden Maiava 3 Yd Run (Ryon Sayeri Kick)10–35
- Q2 7:58MOSTTristian Gardner 33 Yd pass from Jacob Clark (Yousef Obeid Kick)10–28
- Q2 12:00USCBishop Fitzgerald 39 Yd Interception Return (Ryon Sayeri Kick)3–28
- Q2 13:21USCLake McRee 64 Yd pass from Jayden Maiava (Ryon Sayeri Kick)3–21
- Q1 0:28USCBryan Jackson 3 Yd Run (Ryon Sayeri Kick)3–14
- Q1 6:58USCWaymond Jordan 5 Yd Run (Ryon Sayeri Kick)3–7
- Q1 10:12MOSTYousef Obeid 44 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
- PassJacob Clark 16/24, 147 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushShomari Lawrence 12 CAR, 50 YDS
- RecTristian Gardner 2 REC, 39 YDS, 1 TD
- PassJayden Maiava 15/18, 295 YDS, 2 TD
- RushKing Miller 4 CAR, 80 YDS, 1 TD
- RecMakai Lemon 7 REC, 90 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUSC up 43 entering the 4th quarter. Across 212 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 6:58USC +16%
Waymond Jordan run for 5 yds for a TD (Ryon Sayeri KICK)
- Q1 0:28USC +11%
Bryan Jackson run for 3 yds for a TD (Ryon Sayeri KICK)
- Q2 13:21USC +7%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Lake McRee for 64 yds for a TD (Ryon Sayeri KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Missouri State vs. USC?
Missouri State 13, USC 73.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (USC) was correct.
| MOST | USC | |
|---|---|---|
| 224 | Total yards | 597 |
| 159 | Passing yards | 364 |
| 65 | Rushing yards | 233 |
| 11 | First downs | 27 |
| 3-14 | 3rd down | 6-7 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 20/28 | Comp/Att | 24/27 |
| 5.7 | Yards per pass | 13.5 |
| 2.2 | Yards per rush | 7.8 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 6-60 | Penalties | 5-45 |
| 32:31 | Possession | 27:29 |
Costliest call
Q1 10:12 MOST field goal on 4th & 3 at USC 27. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.16 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:46USCCarson Tabaracci 9 Yd pass from Husan Longstreet (William Weisberg Kick)13–73
- Q4 10:51USCRyon Sayeri 32 Yd Field Goal 13–66
- Q4 13:30USCHusan Longstreet 17 Yd Run (William Weisberg Kick)13–63
- Q3 5:30USCKing Miller 75 Yd Run (Ryon Sayeri Kick)13–56
- Q3 5:42MOSTYousef Obeid 46 Yd Field Goal 13–49
- Q3 10:26USCHusan Longstreet 5 Yd Run (Ryon Sayeri Kick)10–49
- Q2 0:25USCEli Sanders 73 Yd pass from Jayden Maiava (Ryon Sayeri Kick)10–42
- Q2 3:35USCJayden Maiava 3 Yd Run (Ryon Sayeri Kick)10–35
- Q2 7:58MOSTTristian Gardner 33 Yd pass from Jacob Clark (Yousef Obeid Kick)10–28
- Q2 12:00USCBishop Fitzgerald 39 Yd Interception Return (Ryon Sayeri Kick)3–28
- Q2 13:21USCLake McRee 64 Yd pass from Jayden Maiava (Ryon Sayeri Kick)3–21
- Q1 0:28USCBryan Jackson 3 Yd Run (Ryon Sayeri Kick)3–14
- Q1 6:58USCWaymond Jordan 5 Yd Run (Ryon Sayeri Kick)3–7
- Q1 10:12MOSTYousef Obeid 44 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (USC Elo 1676, MOST Elo 1500 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects USC -9.4 (74% to win) — 26.6 points clear of MOST's market line of -36. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| MOST | USC | |
|---|---|---|
| -9.3 (#92) | CORE overall | +22.5 (#10) |
| -0 / +9 | offense / defense | +18 / -4 |
| 2.26 | points / drive | 3.53 |
| 2.55 | allowed / drive | 2.14 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 14% |
| +6 | pass over expected | +6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →