#6Makai Lemon

WR·USC·2025

Makai Lemon is a Versatile WR for USC. Makai's 2025 season ranks in the 100th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 115 plays — a elite rate for the WR.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Makai Lemon's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Receiving

79 Receptions1156 Rec yards11 Rec TD14.6 Yards/rec

Returns

8 Kick returns144 KR yards0 KR TD6 Punt returns71 PR yards0 PR TD

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs WR peers

Efficiency100
Volume42
Explosiveness51
Consistency76
Pass-Down33

Player type

Versatile WR

Balanced profile without a single dominant trait — contributes across multiple dimensions.

Balanced usageMulti-role

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency76th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸8 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.53 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 2.00 EPA/play in Wk 2 vs Georgia Southern (SP+ -9).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Elite

Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Quadree Henderson	Pittsburgh	2016	63	0.530	1.6	33.4
Keytaon Thompson	Mississippi State	2017	70	0.460	1.2	32.2
DeAndre Hughes	Air Force	2021	60	0.470	1.3	28.2
Savion Williams	TCU	2024	56	0.450	1.1	25.2
Bert Emanuel Jr.	Central Michigan	2022	53	0.460	1.6	24.4

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
1	vsMissouri State	W73-13	-10.7	7	90	12.9	0	26	0.79
2	vsGeorgia Southern	W59-20	-9.4	4	158	39.5	2	74	2.00
3	@Purdue	W33-17	-6.1	5	63	12.6	0	21	0.27
4	vsMichigan State	W45-31	-3.4	8	127	15.9	1	40	1.12
5	@Illinois	L32-34	12.9	11	151	13.7	2	29	0.83
7	vsMichigan	W31-13	12.4	9	93	10.3	1	28	0.56
8	@Notre Dame	L24-34	24.4	4	76	19.0	0	42	0.27
10	@Nebraska	W21-17	6.2	2	18	9.0	0	16	-0.05
11	vsNorthwestern	W38-17	5.8	11	161	14.6	1	52	0.65
12	vsIowa	W26-21	19.7	10	153	15.3	1	35	0.94
13	@Oregon	L27-42	25.9	7	34	4.9	2	9	0.07
14	vsUCLA	W29-10	-8.7	1	32	32.0	1	32	0.51

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

14.7%

Passing plays

27.9%

Rushing plays

1.8%

Standard downs

13.2%

Passing downs

19.2%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.69
Passing downs: 0.59
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.71 / -0.21

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).