Sat, Nov 8, 6:00 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOST | 0 | 0 | 7 | 14 | 21 |
| LIB | 7 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 17 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (LIB Elo 1506, MOST Elo 1340) plus home-field advantage. That projects LIB -9 (75% to win), essentially in line with the market.
LIB up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Missouri State 21, Liberty 17.
No — the model picked LIB, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had LIB pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
End of 3rd quarter.
End of 1st quarter.
(06:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass complete deep middle to #15 T.Gardner caught at LU36, for 31 yards to the LU33 (#29 A.Jones), 1ST DOWN
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