Missouri State vs. Liberty: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MOSTTeam statsLIB
- Q4 0:27MOSTTristian Gardner 13 Yd pass from Jacob Clark (Yousef Obeid Kick)21–17
- Q4 8:10LIBEthan Vasko 3 Yd Run (Jay Billingsley Kick)14–17
- Q4 11:54MOSTJacob Clark 1 Yd Run (Yousef Obeid Kick)14–10
- Q3 4:47MOSTJmariyae Robinson 28 Yd pass from Jacob Clark (Yousef Obeid Kick)7–10
- Q2 0:00LIBJay Billingsley 38 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 11:24LIBEvan Dickens 1 Yd Run (Jay Billingsley Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassJacob Clark 20/33, 286 YDS, 2 TD
- RushShomari Lawrence 13 CAR, 48 YDS
- RecTristian Gardner 5 REC, 80 YDS, 1 TD
- PassEthan Vasko 18/35, 196 YDS, 1 INT
- RushEvan Dickens 28 CAR, 127 YDS, 1 TD
- RecReese Smith 4 REC, 62 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsLIB up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:27MOST +81%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass complete short right to #15 T.Gardner caught at LU00, for 13 yards to the LU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q4 8:10LIB +42%
No Huddle-Shotgun #15 E.Vasko rush left for 3 yards gain to the MOST00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q4 11:54MOST +38%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark rush right for 1 yard gain to the LU00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q4 1:19MOST +21%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass complete short middle to #0 J.Robinson caught at MOST48, for 22 yards to the LU48 (#6 C.Bodnar), 1ST DOWN
- Q3 4:47MOST +20%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass complete deep left to #0 J.Robinson caught at LU03, for 28 yards to the LU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q4 5:16LIB +18%
No Huddle-Shotgun #24 V.Blue rush right for 2 yards gain to the LU19 (#7 D.Wesolak)
FAQ
What was the final score of Missouri State vs. Liberty?
Missouri State 21, Liberty 17.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked LIB, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| MOST | LIB | |
|---|---|---|
| 332 | Total yards | 398 |
| 286 | Passing yards | 196 |
| 46 | Rushing yards | 202 |
| 20 | First downs | 21 |
| 4-11 | 3rd down | 8-18 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 20/33 | Comp/Att | 18/35 |
| 8.7 | Yards per pass | 5.6 |
| 1.9 | Yards per rush | 4.7 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 5-22 | Penalties | 7-77 |
| 26:35 | Possession | 33:25 |
Costliest call
Q2 1:48 MOST punt on 4th & 1 at MOST 20. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.90 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:27MOSTTristian Gardner 13 Yd pass from Jacob Clark (Yousef Obeid Kick)21–17
- Q4 8:10LIBEthan Vasko 3 Yd Run (Jay Billingsley Kick)14–17
- Q4 11:54MOSTJacob Clark 1 Yd Run (Yousef Obeid Kick)14–10
- Q3 4:47MOSTJmariyae Robinson 28 Yd pass from Jacob Clark (Yousef Obeid Kick)7–10
- Q2 0:00LIBJay Billingsley 38 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 11:24LIBEvan Dickens 1 Yd Run (Jay Billingsley Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (LIB Elo 1506, MOST Elo 1340 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects LIB -9 (73% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#94 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #59 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds.
The 2025 upset archive →| MOST | LIB | |
|---|---|---|
| -9.3 (#92) | CORE overall | -7.1 (#88) |
| -0 / +9 | offense / defense | +2 / +9 |
| 2.26 | points / drive | 2.25 |
| 2.55 | allowed / drive | 2.59 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 25% |
| +6 | pass over expected | -9 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →