Williams Stadium (VA)Conference game
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOST | 0 | 0 | 7 | 14 | 21 |
| LIB | 7 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 17 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
LIB 1506
MOST 1340
Projected spread
LIB -9
incl. home edge
Model pick
LIB
75% to win
Market spread
LIB -7.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
75%
LIB · market 72%
Our model blends Elo ratings (LIB Elo 1506, MOST Elo 1340) plus home-field advantage. That projects LIB -9 (75% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
LIB (top)MOST (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: LIB 0%
Key matchups · Pro
- MOST rush offense (0.03 PPA) vs. LIB rush defense (0.19 allowed) — edge LIB.
- LIB pass offense (0.21 PPA) vs. MOST pass defense (0.33 allowed) — edge MOST.
- MOST pass offense (0.34 PPA) vs. LIB pass defense (0.25 allowed) — edge MOST.
Drive-by-drive
MOST 3/11 scoring drives← own end zone →LIB 3/12 scoring drives
LIBTD7 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
MOSTPUNT7 pl, 25 yds· own 19Q1
LIBPUNT10 pl, 43 yds· own 10Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
LIB up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
61%
LIB went on to win
A genuinely vulnerable lead — comebacks are common
FAQ
What was the final score of Missouri State vs. Liberty?
Missouri State 21, Liberty 17.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked LIB, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had LIB pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.