#6Reese Smith

WR·Liberty·2025

Reese Smith is a Slot Specialist WR for Liberty. Reese's 2025 season produced 10.2 total EPA across 33 plays.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Reese Smith's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Receiving

23 Receptions209 Rec yards1 Rec TD9.1 Yards/rec

Returns

10 Punt returns30 PR yards0 PR TD

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs WR peers

Efficiency100
Volume12
Explosiveness14
Consistency0
Pass-Down60

Player type

Slot Specialist WR

The offense's primary passing-down weapon — routes, separation, and reliability on 3rd down define this role.

3rd-down converterRoute technicianHigh passing-down share

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency0th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.16 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 1.33 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs Maine.

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Star

Top-10 nationally. Multiple mid-to-large collective deals expected.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Keytaon Thompson	Virginia	2020	39	0.320	0.4	12.5
Nick Nash	San José State	2021	45	0.310	0.5	14.0
Cade Harris	Air Force	2024	45	0.330	0.5	14.8
Ainias Smith	Texas A&M	2020	55	0.310	0.5	17.0
Xavier White	Texas Tech	2020	62	0.300	0.5	18.6

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
1	vsMaine	W28-7	—	6	46	7.7	1	11	1.33
2	@Jacksonville State	L24-34	-6.7	2	12	6.0	0	6	0.21
3	@Bowling Green	L13-23	-12.6	4	60	15.0	0	18	0.58
5	@Old Dominion	L7-21	5.9	1	0	0.0	0	0	-0.63
7	@UTEP	W19-8	-17.5	1	1	1.0	0	1	-0.70
8	vsNew Mexico State	W30-27	-15.5	—	—	—	—	—	-0.69
10	vsDelaware	W59-30	-10.9	1	3	3.0	0	3	-0.35
11	vsMissouri State	L17-21	-10.7	4	62	15.5	0	23	1.28
12	@Florida International	L27-34	-10.5	2	9	4.5	0	5	-0.74
14	vsKennesaw State	L42-48	-5.4	2	16	8.0	0	11	0.52

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

4.1%

Passing plays

10.0%

Rushing plays

0.0%

Standard downs

3.3%

Passing downs

6.0%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.28
Passing downs: 0.34
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.33 / —

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).