Mississippi State vs. Missouri: Final Score, Recap & Advanced Stats

Mississippi State5-5

Missouri6-3

▸

Final

Memorial StadiumConference game

	1	2	3	4	T
MSST	10	0	14	3	27
MIZ	14	7	14	14	49

MSSTTeam statsMIZ

345Total yards438

235Pass112

110Rush326

27First downs17

7-183rd down5-10

3Turnovers2

36:42Possession23:18

Q4 5:19MSSTKyle Ferrie 41 Yd Field Goal 27–49
Q4 11:11MIZAhmad Hardy 43 Yd Run (Robert Meyer Kick)24–49
Q4 13:09MIZMarvin Burks Jr. 28 Yd Interception Return (Robert Meyer Kick)24–42
Q3 2:47MSSTSeydou Traore 3 Yd pass from Kamario Taylor (Kyle Ferrie Kick)24–35
Q3 5:47MIZToriano Pride Jr. 19 Yd Interception Return (Robert Meyer Kick)17–35
Q3 5:56MIZAhmad Hardy 72 Yd Run (Robert Meyer Kick)17–28
Q3 10:28MSSTBlake Shapen 3 Yd Run (Kyle Ferrie Kick)17–21
Q2 2:36MIZAhmad Hardy 10 Yd Run (Robert Meyer Kick)10–21
Q1 0:00MSSTBlake Shapen 2 Yd Run (Kyle Ferrie Kick)10–14
Q1 4:52MIZJoshua Manning 34 Yd pass from Matt Zollers (Robert Meyer Kick)3–14
Q1 6:28MSSTKyle Ferrie 47 Yd Field Goal 3–7
Q1 11:29MIZDonovan Olugbode 26 Yd pass from Matt Zollers (Robert Meyer Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Model line

MIZ −10.8

market MIZ −7.5

Biggest swing

MSST +15%

Q3 10:28

Against the number

MIZ covered

line MIZ −7.5

MIZ favored ↑50%MSST favored ↓

GridpexMIZ 100%

Closing line

MIZ −7.5

Closing total

50.5

Model line

MIZ −10.8

Actual result

MSST 27 – 49 MIZ

Mississippi State

PassBlake Shapen 19/33, 199 YDS, 2 INT
RushDavon Booth 10 CAR, 34 YDS
RecAnthony Evans III 7 REC, 71 YDS

Missouri

PassMatt Zollers 8/15, 112 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
RushAhmad Hardy 25 CAR, 300 YDS, 3 TD
RecKevin Coleman Jr. 4 REC, 41 YDS

22.7sper snap · faster the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

151

Points / snap

0.50

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

MIZ up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,142 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

88%

MIZ went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WUAlbany vs Fordham34-13 WIowa vs Utah State24-14 WDelaware vs Stony Brook37-13 WTexas State vs Baylor42-31 WKentucky vs Eastern Kentucky28-17

Q3 10:28MSST +15%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Shapen rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Mizzou00 TOUCHDOWN
Q3 5:56MIZ +13%
No Huddle-Shotgun #29 A.Hardy rush middle for 72 yards gain to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
Q1 11:29MIZ +12%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 M.Zollers pass complete deep left to #1 D.Olugbode caught at MSU00, for 26 yards to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY MSU Offside declined
Q2 2:36MIZ +12%
No Huddle-Shotgun #29 A.Hardy rush left for 10 yards gain to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
Q1 0:00MSST +11%
Blake Shapen 2 Yd Run (Kyle Ferrie Kick)
Q1 4:52MIZ +10%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 M.Zollers pass complete short left to #0 J.Manning caught at MSU25, for 34 yards to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN

FAQ

What was the final score of Mississippi State vs. Missouri?

Mississippi State 27, Missouri 49.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (MIZ) was correct.

MSST

MIZ

43%

Success rate

48%

-0.21

EPA / pass

-0.16

-0.07

EPA / rush

0.54

42%

Early-down success

49%

47%

Pass success

42%

40%

Rush success

51%

11%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

18%

23%

Stuffed rush rate

14%

50%

Pass rate

34%

8.2

Avg 3rd-down distance

7.3

MSST

8.2 yards to go on 3rd down

95 scrimmage snaps

MIZ

7.3 yards to go on 3rd down

56 scrimmage snaps

MSST		MIZ
345	Total yards	438
235	Passing yards	112
110	Rushing yards	326
27	First downs	17
7-18	3rd down	5-10
0-3	4th down	0-0
23/38	Comp/Att	8/16
6.2	Yards per pass	7.0
2.1	Yards per rush	8.4
3	Turnovers	2
7-45	Penalties	11-74
36:42	Possession	23:18

Model prediction

how the number is built

Power rating (Elo)

MIZ 1734

MSST 1523

Projected spread

MIZ -10.8

incl. home edge

Model pick

MIZ

77% to win

Market spread

MIZ -7.5

sportsbook line

Model vs market

MIZ

3.3 pts apart

Win prob: model / mkt

77%

MIZ · market 69%

Our model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MIZ Elo 1734, MSST Elo 1523 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MIZ -10.8 (77% to win) — 3.3 points clear of MIZ's market line of -7.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.

Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).

Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation

Season form — 2025

nationally ranked

MSST2025 season · national rank shownMIZ

399.256th

Total yards / game

416.831st

5.581st

Yards / play

5.946th

241.454th

Passing yards / game

188.4104th

157.868th

Rushing yards / game

228.58th

42.7%38th

3rd down %

44.9%30th

409.6106th

Yards allowed / game

275.28th

41.3%96th

3rd down % allowed

35.3%38th

+346th

Turnover margin

-5103rd

7.2111th

Penalties / game

5.542nd

The matchup, in context

series history + adjusted profiles

Opponent-adjusted profile2025

MSST		MIZ
+0.1 (#64)	CORE overall	+20.9 (#12)
-1 / -1	offense / defense	+5 / -15
2.07	points / drive	2.45
2.54	allowed / drive	1.57
27%	three-and-outs	22%
-4	pass over expected	-7

Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.

CORE ratings →Drive efficiency →Play-calling →

Pro

Key matchups

The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.

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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →

Game Info

Kickoff: Sat, Nov 15, 7:45 PM EST
Venue: Memorial Stadium
Setting: Conference game
Model line: MIZ -10.8

The Model's Pick

Missouri

to win · 77%

✓ Hit

Projected spreadMIZ -10.8

Market69%

Game Leaders

Mississippi State

Pass Blake Shapen19/33, 199 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT
Rush Davon Booth10 car, 34 yds
Rec Anthony Evans III7 rec, 71 yds

Missouri

Pass Matt Zollers8/15, 112 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
Rush Ahmad Hardy25 car, 300 yds, 3 TD
Rec Kevin Coleman Jr.4 rec, 41 yds

Biggest Plays

Missouri+-7.2 EPA
(05:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Shapen pass intercepted by #2 T.Pride Jr. at MSU19 broken up by #13 D.Carnell #2 T.Pride Jr. return 19 yards to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:47 #88 R.Meyer kick attempt good (H: #45 C.Weselman, LS: #51 B.Le Blanc) PENALTY MSU Offside declined
Missouri+-6.8 EPA
(13:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Shapen pass intercepted by #1 M.Burks at MSU28 #1 M.Burks return 28 yards to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:09 PENALTY MSU Holding declined #88 R.Meyer kick attempt good (H: #45 C.Weselman, LS: #51 B.Le Blanc)
Missouri+6.3 EPA
(06:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 A.Hardy rush middle for 72 yards gain to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:56, 1ST DOWN #88 R.Meyer kick attempt good (H: #45 C.Weselman, LS: #51 B.Le Blanc)

MSSTTeam statsMIZ

Scoring plays

How the model called it

Win probability

How the line closed

Leaders

Tempo

This exact spot, historically

Fourth downs

What decided it

FAQ

What was the final score of Mississippi State vs. Missouri?

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Situational splits

Team stats

Fourth downs

Drive chart

Scoring plays

Model prediction

Season form — 2025

The matchup, in context

Key matchups

Mississippi State vs. Missouri: Final Score & Recap

MSSTTeam statsMIZ

How the model called it

What was the final score of Mississippi State vs. Missouri?

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Key matchups