Sun, Nov 16, 12:45 AM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSST | 10 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 27 |
| MIZ | 14 | 7 | 14 | 14 | 49 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (MIZ Elo 1734, MSST Elo 1523) plus home-field advantage. That projects MIZ -10.8 (79% to win) — 3.3 points of value on MIZ versus the market line of -7.5.
MIZ up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,142 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Mississippi State 27, Missouri 49.
Yes — the model's pick (MIZ) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had MIZ pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(05:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Shapen pass intercepted by #2 T.Pride Jr. at MSU19 broken up by #13 D.Carnell #2 T.Pride Jr. return 19 yards to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:47 #88 R.Meyer kick attempt good (H: #45 C.Weselman, LS: #51 B.Le Blanc) PENALTY MSU Offside declined
(13:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Shapen pass intercepted by #1 M.Burks at MSU28 #1 M.Burks return 28 yards to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:09 PENALTY MSU Holding declined #88 R.Meyer kick attempt good (H: #45 C.Weselman, LS: #51 B.Le Blanc)
(06:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 A.Hardy rush middle for 72 yards gain to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:56, 1ST DOWN #88 R.Meyer kick attempt good (H: #45 C.Weselman, LS: #51 B.Le Blanc)
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