Mackay StadiumClosing line: NEV -9.5 · MTSU covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTSU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 14 |
| NEV | 0 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 13 |
Team stats
MTSUthis game · better side highlightedNEV
352
Total yards
369247
Passing yards
166105
Rushing yards
20323
First downs
167-17 · 41%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
NEV 1284
MTSU 1182
Projected spread
NEV -6.5
incl. home edge
Model pick
NEV
68% to win
Market spread
NEV -9.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
MTSU
3.0 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
68%
NEV · market 74%
Our model blends Elo ratings (NEV Elo 1284, MTSU Elo 1182) plus home-field advantage. That projects NEV -6.5 (68% to win) — 3.0 points of value on MTSU versus the market line of -9.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
NEV (top)MTSU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: NEV 0%
Key matchups · Pro
- NEV pass offense (-0.02 PPA) vs. MTSU pass defense (0.41 allowed) — edge MTSU.
- MTSU rush offense (0.08 PPA) vs. NEV rush defense (0.22 allowed) — edge NEV.
- MTSU pass offense (0.21 PPA) vs. NEV pass defense (0.18 allowed) — edge MTSU.
Drive-by-drive
MTSU 2/13 scoring drives← own end zone →NEV 3/13 scoring drives
MTSUPUNT8 pl, 30 yds· own 25Q1
NEVPUNT6 pl, 18 yds· own 7Q1
MTSUPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 32Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
NEV up 13 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,180 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
91%
NEV went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Middle Tennessee vs. Nevada?
Middle Tennessee 14, Nevada 13.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked NEV, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had NEV pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.