Middle Tennessee vs. Kennesaw State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MTSUTeam statsKENN
- Q4 10:43KENNBritton Williams 39 Yd Field Goal 16–24
- Q4 14:56MTSUJekail Middlebrook 9 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)16–21
- Q2 4:17MTSUJekail Middlebrook 10 Yd Run (Jacob Hathaway Kick)10–21
- Q1 0:11KENNGabriel Benyard 29 Yd pass from Amari Odom (Britton Williams Kick)3–21
- Q1 3:43MTSUJacob Hathaway 34 Yd Field Goal 3–14
- Q1 9:06KENNChase Belcher 53 Yd pass from Amari Odom (Britton Williams Kick)0–14
- Q1 13:25KENNGerard Bullock Jr. 13 Yd pass from Christian Moss (Britton Williams Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassNicholas Vattiato 27/41, 278 YDS, 1 INT
- RushJekail Middlebrook 20 CAR, 109 YDS, 2 TD
- RecCam'ron Lacy 8 REC, 96 YDS
- PassAmari Odom 11/17, 162 YDS, 2 TD
- RushColeman Bennett 12 CAR, 101 YDS
- RecChase Belcher 1 REC, 53 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsKENN up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,142 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 14:12MTSU +23%
No Huddle-Shotgun Vattiato,Nicholas pass incomplete short left to Cox,Nahzae thrown to MTSU35 PENALTY MTSU Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Harris,E.J.) 5 yards from MTSU…
- Q3 6:07KENN +6%
PENALTY KSU False Start (Moss,Karson) 5 yards from KSU46 to KSU41. NO PLAY
FAQ
What was the final score of Middle Tennessee vs. Kennesaw State?
Middle Tennessee 16, Kennesaw State 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (KENN) was correct.
| MTSU | KENN | |
|---|---|---|
| 460 | Total yards | 334 |
| 305 | Passing yards | 177 |
| 155 | Rushing yards | 157 |
| 24 | First downs | 17 |
| 4-14 | 3rd down | 1-8 |
| 2-4 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 28/42 | Comp/Att | 13/20 |
| 7.3 | Yards per pass | 8.9 |
| 4.2 | Yards per rush | 5.1 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 7-65 | Penalties | 4-30 |
| 38:59 | Possession | 21:01 |
Costliest call
Q2 9:35 MTSU punt on 4th & 9 at KENN 40. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.44 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 10:43KENNBritton Williams 39 Yd Field Goal 16–24
- Q4 14:56MTSUJekail Middlebrook 9 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)16–21
- Q2 4:17MTSUJekail Middlebrook 10 Yd Run (Jacob Hathaway Kick)10–21
- Q1 0:11KENNGabriel Benyard 29 Yd pass from Amari Odom (Britton Williams Kick)3–21
- Q1 3:43MTSUJacob Hathaway 34 Yd Field Goal 3–14
- Q1 9:06KENNChase Belcher 53 Yd pass from Amari Odom (Britton Williams Kick)0–14
- Q1 13:25KENNGerard Bullock Jr. 13 Yd pass from Christian Moss (Britton Williams Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (KENN Elo 1213, MTSU Elo 1185 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects KENN -3.5 (60% to win) — 3.5 points clear of MTSU's market line of -7. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| MTSU | KENN | |
|---|---|---|
| -15.9 (#113) | CORE overall | -3.9 (#76) |
| -5 / +11 | offense / defense | +2 / +6 |
| 1.93 | points / drive | 2.14 |
| 2.66 | allowed / drive | 2.02 |
| 27% | three-and-outs | 28% |
| +10 | pass over expected | -2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →