Miami (OH) vs. Northern Illinois: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
M-OHTeam statsNIU
- Q4 3:31M-OHDom Dzioban 24 Yd Field Goal 25–14
- Q3 8:11M-OHDeion Colzie 8 Yd pass from Dequan Finn (Dom Dzioban Kick)22–14
- Q3 11:30M-OHTeam Safety 15–14
- Q3 13:30M-OHDom Dzioban 45 Yd Field Goal 13–14
- Q2 4:51M-OHDom Dzioban 41 Yd Field Goal 10–14
- Q2 14:57M-OHD'Shawntae Jones 1 Yd Run (Dom Dzioban Kick)7–14
- Q1 3:23NIUJake Appleget 17 Yd pass from Brady Davidson (Andrew Glass Kick)0–14
- Q1 10:18NIULazaro Rogers 76 Yd Run (Andrew Glass Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassDequan Finn 14/26, 170 YDS, 1 TD
- RushDequan Finn 21 CAR, 90 YDS
- RecKam Perry 3 REC, 76 YDS
- PassBrady Davidson 13/28, 106 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushLazaro Rogers 9 CAR, 98 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDeAree Rogers 4 REC, 40 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsM-OH up 8 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,588 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 10:28NIU +24%
Pierse Stainton punt for 13 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NIU 24
- Q4 11:40M-OH +7%
Pierse Stainton punt for 43 yds, fair catch by DeAree Rogers at the NIU 28
- Q4 4:38M-OH +7%
No Huddle-Shotgun Finn,Dequan pass incomplete deep right to Reynolds,Keith thrown to NIU13 PENALTY NIU Pass Interference 15 yards from NIU37 to NIU22, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY
- Q3 3:08M-OH +7%
Pierse Stainton punt for 48 yds, fair catch by DeAree Rogers at the NIU 26
- Q3 8:16M-OH +6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Finn,Dequan pass complete short right to Weaver,Cole caught at NIU00, for 3 yards to the NIU00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty PENALTY MIA Illegal Tou…
FAQ
What was the final score of Miami (OH) vs. Northern Illinois?
Miami (OH) 25, Northern Illinois 14.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked NIU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| M-OH | NIU | |
|---|---|---|
| 367 | Total yards | 220 |
| 170 | Passing yards | 106 |
| 197 | Rushing yards | 114 |
| 22 | First downs | 11 |
| 8-18 | 3rd down | 4-14 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 14/26 | Comp/Att | 13/28 |
| 6.5 | Yards per pass | 3.8 |
| 3.9 | Yards per rush | 5.0 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 7-50 | Penalties | 6-42 |
| 39:06 | Possession | 20:54 |
Costliest call
Q1 10:28 M-OH punt on 4th & 4 at NIU 37. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.12 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:31M-OHDom Dzioban 24 Yd Field Goal 25–14
- Q3 8:11M-OHDeion Colzie 8 Yd pass from Dequan Finn (Dom Dzioban Kick)22–14
- Q3 11:30M-OHTeam Safety 15–14
- Q3 13:30M-OHDom Dzioban 45 Yd Field Goal 13–14
- Q2 4:51M-OHDom Dzioban 41 Yd Field Goal 10–14
- Q2 14:57M-OHD'Shawntae Jones 1 Yd Run (Dom Dzioban Kick)7–14
- Q1 3:23NIUJake Appleget 17 Yd pass from Brady Davidson (Andrew Glass Kick)0–14
- Q1 10:18NIULazaro Rogers 76 Yd Run (Andrew Glass Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (NIU Elo 1375, M-OH Elo 1430 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects NIU -0.2 (52% to win) — 4.7 points clear of NIU's market line of +4.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesMiami (OH) leads 13–9 · Miami (OH) has won 5 straight · 41% have been one-possession games
| M-OH | NIU | |
|---|---|---|
| -6.0 (#81) | CORE overall | -22.4 (#129) |
| -7 / -1 | offense / defense | -15 / +8 |
| 1.96 | points / drive | 1.59 |
| 1.91 | allowed / drive | 2.42 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 31% |
| -1 | pass over expected | -19 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →