Memphis vs. East Carolina: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MEMTeam statsECU
- Q4 1:08ECUPayton Mangrum 31 Yd pass from Katin Houser (Nick Mazzie Kick)27–31
- Q4 2:29MEMGianni Spetic 30 Yd Field Goal 27–24
- Q3 5:46ECULondon Montgomery 23 Yd Run (Nick Mazzie Kick)24–24
- Q3 7:36MEMBrendon Lewis 7 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic Kick)24–17
- Q3 11:59ECUKatin Houser 1 Yd Run (Nick Mazzie Kick)17–17
- Q2 0:22MEMGianni Spetic 44 Yd Field Goal 17–10
- Q2 2:19ECUNick Mazzie 49 Yd Field Goal 14–10
- Q2 5:30MEMSutton Smith 84 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic Kick)14–7
- Q2 12:50MEMMatt Adcock 5 Yd pass from Brendon Lewis (Gianni Spetic Kick)7–7
- Q1 2:36ECULondon Montgomery 1 Yd Run (Nick Mazzie Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- MEM played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and ECU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.2 vs 3rd & 6.3
- PassBrendon Lewis 32/43, 209 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushSutton Smith 7 CAR, 109 YDS, 1 TD
- RecCortez Braham Jr. 9 REC, 79 YDS
- PassKatin Houser 23/34, 332 YDS, 1 TD
- RushLondon Montgomery 27 CAR, 103 YDS, 2 TD
- RecBrock Spalding 5 REC, 88 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 1:08ECU +72%
Payton Mangrum 31 Yd pass from Katin Houser (Nick Mazzie Kick)
- Q1 14:36MEM +41%
PENALTY ECU False Start (#69 E.Poku) 5 yards from ECU28 to ECU23. NO PLAY
- Q4 5:49ECU +17%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Montgomery rush middle for 2 yards loss to the ECU16 (#93 J.Bell)
- Q4 1:08MEM +13%
No Huddle #2 B.Lewis pass incomplete short right thrown to MEM40 PENALTY MEM Holding (#61 C.Adams) 10 yards from MEM25 to MEM15. NO PLAY
- Q4 12:28ECU +13%
#0 M.Wright Jr. punt 53 yards to the MEM24
- Q4 12:28MEM +10%
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 G.Desrosiers Jr. rush right for 1 yard loss to the ECU43 (#44 P.Carr; #22 J.Jean) PENALTY MEM Holding (#71 M.Breland) 10 yards from ECU42 to MEM4…
FAQ
What was the final score of Memphis vs. East Carolina?
Memphis 27, East Carolina 31.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ECU) was correct.
| MEM | ECU | |
|---|---|---|
| 457 | Total yards | 454 |
| 217 | Passing yards | 332 |
| 240 | Rushing yards | 122 |
| 24 | First downs | 24 |
| 4-16 | 3rd down | 6-12 |
| 3-4 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 33/44 | Comp/Att | 23/34 |
| 4.9 | Yards per pass | 9.8 |
| 7.3 | Yards per rush | 3.2 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 5-55 | Penalties | 8-72 |
| 35:33 | Possession | 24:27 |
Costliest call
Q2 9:02 MEM punt on 4th & 3 at MEM 37. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.07 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:08ECUPayton Mangrum 31 Yd pass from Katin Houser (Nick Mazzie Kick)27–31
- Q4 2:29MEMGianni Spetic 30 Yd Field Goal 27–24
- Q3 5:46ECULondon Montgomery 23 Yd Run (Nick Mazzie Kick)24–24
- Q3 7:36MEMBrendon Lewis 7 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic Kick)24–17
- Q3 11:59ECUKatin Houser 1 Yd Run (Nick Mazzie Kick)17–17
- Q2 0:22MEMGianni Spetic 44 Yd Field Goal 17–10
- Q2 2:19ECUNick Mazzie 49 Yd Field Goal 14–10
- Q2 5:30MEMSutton Smith 84 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic Kick)14–7
- Q2 12:50MEMMatt Adcock 5 Yd pass from Brendon Lewis (Gianni Spetic Kick)7–7
- Q1 2:36ECULondon Montgomery 1 Yd Run (Nick Mazzie Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ECU Elo 1599, MEM Elo 1665 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ECU +0.2 (51% to win) — 3.2 points clear of MEM's market line of -3. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesEast Carolina leads 18–8 · East Carolina has won 3 straight · 35% have been one-possession games
| MEM | ECU | |
|---|---|---|
| +2.0 (#61) | CORE overall | +7.8 (#46) |
| +4 / +2 | offense / defense | +2 / -5 |
| 2.73 | points / drive | 2.48 |
| 2.19 | allowed / drive | 1.64 |
| 20% | three-and-outs | 19% |
| +1 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →