Sat, Nov 15, 9:00 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MEM | 0 | 17 | 7 | 3 | 27 |
| ECU | 7 | 3 | 14 | 7 | 31 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (ECU Elo 1599, MEM Elo 1665) plus home-field advantage. That projects ECU +0.2 (49% to win) — 3.2 points of value on MEM versus the market line of -3.
Tied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Memphis 27, East Carolina 31.
No — the model picked MEM, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had MEM pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
(05:42) Shotgun #5 S.Smith rush right for 84 yards gain to the ECU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:30, 1ST DOWN #44 G.Spetic kick attempt good (H: #46 T.Gillis, LS: #40 J.Zarut)
No Huddle #22 F.Peasant rush middle for 1 yard loss to the ECU18 (#13 A.Duncanson; #23 J.Benton), TURNOVER ON DOWNS
(04:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete deep right to #1 Y.Smith caught at MEM07, for 39 yards to the MEM05 (#21 S.Israel), 1ST DOWN
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