Dowdy-Ficklen StadiumConference gameClosing line: ECU -3 · ECU covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MEM | 0 | 17 | 7 | 3 | 27 |
| ECU | 7 | 3 | 14 | 7 | 31 |
Team stats
MEMthis game · better side highlightedECU
457
Total yards
454217
Passing yards
332240
Rushing yards
12224
First downs
244-16 · 25%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
ECU 1599
MEM 1665
Projected spread
ECU +0.2
incl. home edge
Model pick
MEM
51% to win
Market spread
ECU -3
sportsbook line
Model edge
MEM
3.2 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
49%
ECU · market 57%
Our model blends Elo ratings (ECU Elo 1599, MEM Elo 1665) plus home-field advantage. That projects ECU +0.2 (49% to win) — 3.2 points of value on MEM versus the market line of -3.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
ECU (top)MEM (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: ECU 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- MEM rush offense (0.30 PPA) vs. ECU rush defense (0.02 allowed) — edge MEM.
- ECU rush offense (0.09 PPA) vs. MEM rush defense (0.04 allowed) — edge ECU.
- MEM pass offense (0.23 PPA) vs. ECU pass defense (0.17 allowed) — edge MEM.
Drive-by-drive
MEM 5/12 scoring drives← own end zone →ECU 5/12 scoring drives
ECUPUNT8 pl, 26 yds· own 25Q1
MEMPUNT10 pl, 44 yds· own 9Q1
ECUTD12 pl, 91 yds· own 9Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
Tied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
50%
ECU win rate
How often the home team won from here
FAQ
What was the final score of Memphis vs. East Carolina?
Memphis 27, East Carolina 31.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked MEM, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had MEM pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.