Massachusetts vs. Central Michigan: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MASSTeam statsCMU
- Q3 4:06MASSDerek Morris 50 Yd Field Goal 13–38
- Q3 7:50CMUNasir Williams 19 Yd pass from Joe Labas (Cade Graham Kick)10–38
- Q3 13:07CMUBrock Townsend 51 Yd pass from Joe Labas (Cade Graham Kick)10–31
- Q2 0:00MASSDerek Morris 29 Yd Field Goal 10–24
- Q2 10:44CMUCade Graham 29 Yd Field Goal 7–24
- Q1 1:19CMUAngel Flores 9 Yd Run (Cade Graham Kick)7–21
- Q1 3:59CMUBrock Townsend 5 Yd Run (Cade Graham Kick)7–14
- Q1 8:05MASSRocko Griffin 43 Yd Run (Derek Morris Kick)7–7
- Q1 9:48CMUBrock Townsend 1 Yd Run (Cade Graham Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- MASS played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and CMU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.6 vs 3rd & 4.5
- PassAJ Hairston Jr 21/51, 176 YDS, 1 INT
- RushRocko Griffin 7 CAR, 56 YDS, 1 TD
- RecKezion Dia-Johnson 3 REC, 41 YDS
- PassJoe Labas 10/11, 148 YDS, 2 TD
- RushNahree Biggins 10 CAR, 94 YDS
- RecBrock Townsend 2 REC, 78 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsCMU up 25 entering the 4th quarter. Across 584 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 8:05MASS +11%
No Huddle-Shotgun #24 R.Griffin rush right for 43 yards gain to the CMU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q1 3:59CMU +11%
Shotgun #22 B.Townsend rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UMass00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 9:48CMU +10%
Shotgun #22 B.Townsend rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UMass00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 1:19CMU +7%
Shotgun #7 A.Flores rush left for 9 yards gain to the UMass00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 14:53MASS +6%
PENALTY UMass False Start (#69 B.Taylor) 5 yards from UMass30 to UMass25. NO PLAY
- Q3 13:07CMU +5%
Shotgun #2 J.Labas pass complete short right to #22 B.Townsend caught at UMass45, for 51 yards to the UMass00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Massachusetts vs. Central Michigan?
Massachusetts 13, Central Michigan 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (CMU) was correct.
| MASS | CMU | |
|---|---|---|
| 292 | Total yards | 502 |
| 176 | Passing yards | 223 |
| 116 | Rushing yards | 279 |
| 20 | First downs | 23 |
| 4-17 | 3rd down | 4-10 |
| 1-4 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 21/51 | Comp/Att | 12/13 |
| 3.5 | Yards per pass | 17.2 |
| 4.5 | Yards per rush | 5.3 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 7-45 | Penalties | 5-50 |
| 22:07 | Possession | 37:53 |
Costliest call
Q2 5:50 CMU punt on 4th & 2 at CMU 45. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.74 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q3 4:06MASSDerek Morris 50 Yd Field Goal 13–38
- Q3 7:50CMUNasir Williams 19 Yd pass from Joe Labas (Cade Graham Kick)10–38
- Q3 13:07CMUBrock Townsend 51 Yd pass from Joe Labas (Cade Graham Kick)10–31
- Q2 0:00MASSDerek Morris 29 Yd Field Goal 10–24
- Q2 10:44CMUCade Graham 29 Yd Field Goal 7–24
- Q1 1:19CMUAngel Flores 9 Yd Run (Cade Graham Kick)7–21
- Q1 3:59CMUBrock Townsend 5 Yd Run (Cade Graham Kick)7–14
- Q1 8:05MASSRocko Griffin 43 Yd Run (Derek Morris Kick)7–7
- Q1 9:48CMUBrock Townsend 1 Yd Run (Cade Graham Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (CMU Elo 1203, MASS Elo 910 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects CMU -14.1 (83% to win) — 2.9 points clear of MASS's market line of -17. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| MASS | CMU | |
|---|---|---|
| -40.3 (#136) | CORE overall | -6.9 (#87) |
| -22 / +18 | offense / defense | -4 / +3 |
| 0.88 | points / drive | 1.94 |
| 3.71 | allowed / drive | 2.13 |
| 43% | three-and-outs | 31% |
| +1 | pass over expected | -13 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →