Massachusetts vs. Akron: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MASSTeam statsAKR
- Q4 12:18AKRJordan Gant 9 Yd Run (Matthew Schramm Kick)10–44
- Q3 2:23AKRMatthew Schramm 42 Yd Field Goal 10–37
- Q3 6:33AKRGage Summers 25 Yd Fumble Return (Matthew Schramm Kick)10–34
- Q2 2:14AKRJordan Gant 1 Yd Run (Matthew Schramm PAT failed)10–27
- Q2 11:48AKRBen Finley 2 Yd Run (Matthew Schramm Kick)10–21
- Q1 0:09MASSDerek Morris 55 Yd Field Goal 10–14
- Q1 5:39MASSMagnus Von Saldern 1 Yd pass from AJ Hairston (Derek Morris Kick)7–14
- Q1 8:32AKRIsrael Polk 13 Yd pass from Ben Finley (Matthew Schramm Kick)0–14
- Q1 14:11AKRKyan Mason 15 Yd pass from Ben Finley (Matthew Schramm Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- MASS played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and AKR did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.5 vs 3rd & 5.3
- PassAJ Hairston Jr 12/20, 54 YDS, 1 TD
- RushGrant Jordan 7 CAR, 51 YDS
- RecJacquon Gibson 6 REC, 35 YDS
- PassBen Finley 12/20, 197 YDS, 2 TD
- RushJordan Gant 28 CAR, 153 YDS, 2 TD
- RecMarcel Williams 4 REC, 104 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsAKR up 27 entering the 4th quarter. Across 532 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 14:11AKR +13%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 B.Finley pass complete short middle to #3 K.Mason caught at UMASS01, for 15 yards to the UMASS00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 11:48AKR +12%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 B.Finley rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UMASS00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 5:39MASS +9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #8 A.Hairston pass complete short right to #85 M.von Saldern caught at AKRON00, for 1 yard to the AKRON00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 8:32AKR +9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 B.Finley pass complete short right to #5 I.Polk caught at UMASS00, for 13 yards to the UMASS00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q1 0:09MASS +7%
#99 D.Morris field goal attempt from 55 yards GOOD
- Q2 2:14AKR +5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #22 J.Gant rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UMASS00 TOUCHDOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Massachusetts vs. Akron?
Massachusetts 10, Akron 44.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (AKR) was correct.
| MASS | AKR | |
|---|---|---|
| 169 | Total yards | 467 |
| 92 | Passing yards | 230 |
| 77 | Rushing yards | 237 |
| 14 | First downs | 25 |
| 2-12 | 3rd down | 6-11 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 16/28 | Comp/Att | 14/22 |
| 3.3 | Yards per pass | 10.5 |
| 2.9 | Yards per rush | 5.2 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 6-60 | Penalties | 7-74 |
| 24:47 | Possession | 35:13 |
Costliest call
Q4 12:18 AKR punt on 4th & 1 at AKR 43. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.15 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 12:18AKRJordan Gant 9 Yd Run (Matthew Schramm Kick)10–44
- Q3 2:23AKRMatthew Schramm 42 Yd Field Goal 10–37
- Q3 6:33AKRGage Summers 25 Yd Fumble Return (Matthew Schramm Kick)10–34
- Q2 2:14AKRJordan Gant 1 Yd Run (Matthew Schramm PAT failed)10–27
- Q2 11:48AKRBen Finley 2 Yd Run (Matthew Schramm Kick)10–21
- Q1 0:09MASSDerek Morris 55 Yd Field Goal 10–14
- Q1 5:39MASSMagnus Von Saldern 1 Yd pass from AJ Hairston (Derek Morris Kick)7–14
- Q1 8:32AKRIsrael Polk 13 Yd pass from Ben Finley (Matthew Schramm Kick)0–14
- Q1 14:11AKRKyan Mason 15 Yd pass from Ben Finley (Matthew Schramm Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (AKR Elo 1040, MASS Elo 879 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects AKR -8.8 (73% to win) — 3.2 points clear of MASS's market line of -12. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| MASS | AKR | |
|---|---|---|
| -40.3 (#136) | CORE overall | -21.3 (#128) |
| -22 / +18 | offense / defense | -13 / +8 |
| 0.88 | points / drive | 1.55 |
| 3.71 | allowed / drive | 2.41 |
| 43% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| +1 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →