Kentucky vs. Vanderbilt: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UKTeam statsVAN
- Q4 0:02UKFred Farrier II 9 Yd pass from Cutter Boley (Jacob Kauwe Kick)17–45
- Q4 13:41UKJ.J. Hester 41 Yd pass from Cutter Boley (Jacob Kauwe Kick)10–45
- Q3 1:17VANRichie Hoskins 32 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Brock Taylor Kick)3–45
- Q3 3:14VANDiego Pavia 6 Yd Run (Brock Taylor Kick)3–38
- Q3 8:55VANJunior Sherrill 7 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Brock Taylor Kick)3–31
- Q2 0:38VANTre Richardson 56 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Brock Taylor Kick)3–24
- Q2 0:59UKJacob Kauwe 47 Yd Field Goal 3–17
- Q2 4:35VANTre Richardson 15 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Brock Taylor Kick)0–17
- Q2 13:03VANTre Richardson 71 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Brock Taylor Kick)0–10
- Q1 1:05VANBrock Taylor 39 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- UK lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 13% explosive on a 40% success rate
- PassCutter Boley 26/44, 280 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- RushSeth McGowan 10 CAR, 27 YDS
- RecWillie Rodriguez 6 REC, 78 YDS
- PassDiego Pavia 33/39, 484 YDS, 5 TD, 1 INT
- RushDiego Pavia 15 CAR, 48 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTre Richardson 6 REC, 159 YDS, 3 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsVAN up 42 entering the 4th quarter. Across 170 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 13:03VAN +13%
Tre Richardson 71 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Brock Taylor Kick)
- Q1 1:05VAN +7%
#88 B.Taylor field goal attempt from 39 yards GOOD
- Q2 4:35VAN +7%
Tre Richardson 15 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Brock Taylor Kick)
FAQ
What was the final score of Kentucky vs. Vanderbilt?
Kentucky 17, Vanderbilt 45.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (VAN) was correct.
| UK | VAN | |
|---|---|---|
| 315 | Total yards | 604 |
| 284 | Passing yards | 539 |
| 31 | Rushing yards | 65 |
| 18 | First downs | 29 |
| 6-15 | 3rd down | 3-9 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 2-4 |
| 29/49 | Comp/Att | 37/44 |
| 5.8 | Yards per pass | 12.3 |
| 1.6 | Yards per rush | 2.6 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 7-65 | Penalties | 7-70 |
| 23:47 | Possession | 36:13 |
Costliest call
Q1 3:40 VAN go for it on 4th & 3 at UK 22. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.09 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:02UKFred Farrier II 9 Yd pass from Cutter Boley (Jacob Kauwe Kick)17–45
- Q4 13:41UKJ.J. Hester 41 Yd pass from Cutter Boley (Jacob Kauwe Kick)10–45
- Q3 1:17VANRichie Hoskins 32 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Brock Taylor Kick)3–45
- Q3 3:14VANDiego Pavia 6 Yd Run (Brock Taylor Kick)3–38
- Q3 8:55VANJunior Sherrill 7 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Brock Taylor Kick)3–31
- Q2 0:38VANTre Richardson 56 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Brock Taylor Kick)3–24
- Q2 0:59UKJacob Kauwe 47 Yd Field Goal 3–17
- Q2 4:35VANTre Richardson 15 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Brock Taylor Kick)0–17
- Q2 13:03VANTre Richardson 71 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Brock Taylor Kick)0–10
- Q1 1:05VANBrock Taylor 39 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (VAN Elo 1770, UK Elo 1635 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects VAN -7.8 (71% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesKentucky leads 49–42–4 · Vanderbilt has won 2 straight · 43% have been one-possession games
| UK | VAN | |
|---|---|---|
| +5.8 (#52) | CORE overall | +25.4 (#8) |
| -2 / -8 | offense / defense | +28 / +2 |
| 1.77 | points / drive | 3.85 |
| 2.42 | allowed / drive | 2.40 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 16% |
| -1 | pass over expected | +5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →