| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UK | 0 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 17 |
| VAN | 3 | 21 | 21 | 0 | 45 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (VAN Elo 1770, UK Elo 1635) plus home-field advantage. That projects VAN -7.8 (72% to win), essentially in line with the market.
VAN up 42 entering the 4th quarter. Across 170 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Kentucky 17, Vanderbilt 45.
Yes — the model's pick (VAN) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had VAN pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Tre Richardson 71 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Brock Taylor Kick)
(09:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass intercepted by #4 M.Hight at Vandy01 #4 M.Hight return 35 yards to the Vandy36 (#1 K.Law) PENALTY Vandy UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#3 K.Taylor) 15 yards from Vandy36 to Vandy21
Tre Richardson 56 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Brock Taylor Kick)
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