James Madison vs. Marshall: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
JMUTeam statsMRSH
- Q4 2:16JMUWayne Knight 49 Yd pass from Alonza Barnett III (Morgan Suarez Kick)35–23
- Q4 10:15MRSHLorcan Quinn 23 Yd Field Goal 28–23
- Q3 1:04MRSHTracy Stephens 4 Yd pass from Carlos Del Rio-Wilson (Carlos Del Rio-Wilson Pass to De'Andre Tamarez for Two-Point Conversion)28–20
- Q3 7:47JMUJaylan Sanchez 80 Yd pass from Alonza Barnett III (Morgan Suarez Kick)28–12
- Q2 0:00MRSHLorcan Quinn 52 Yd Field Goal 21–12
- Q2 0:28JMUJordan Fuller 1 Yd Run (Morgan Suarez Kick)21–9
- Q2 4:45MRSHLorcan Quinn 49 Yd Field Goal 14–9
- Q2 8:38JMUWayne Knight 6 Yd Run (Morgan Suarez Kick)14–6
- Q2 13:55MRSHAntwan Roberts 13 Yd Run (Lorcan Quinn PAT failed)7–6
- Q1 8:02JMUBraeden Wisloski 26 Yd pass from Alonza Barnett III (Morgan Suarez Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassAlonza Barnett III 14/24, 270 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushWayne Knight 14 CAR, 87 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJaylan Sanchez 3 REC, 86 YDS, 1 TD
- PassCarlos Del Rio-Wilson 16/35, 154 YDS, 1 TD
- RushAntwan Roberts Jr. 20 CAR, 121 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDe'Andre Tamarez 3 REC, 37 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsJMU up 8 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,588 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 8:38JMU +15%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 W.Knight rush left for 6 yards gain to the MAR00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q4 10:15MRSH +15%
#90 L.Quinn field goal attempt from 23 yards GOOD
- Q4 4:54JMU +14%
#11 P.Rea punt 41 yards to the MAR47 fair catch by #4 D.Lacey at MAR47
- Q1 8:02JMU +14%
No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Barnett III pass complete deep middle to #10 B.Wisloski caught at MAR00, for 26 yards to the MAR00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 13:55MRSH +13%
No Huddle-Shotgun #44 A.Roberts rush middle for 15 yards gain to the JMU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 0:28JMU +12%
No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Fuller rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MAR00 TOUCHDOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of James Madison vs. Marshall?
James Madison 35, Marshall 23.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (JMU) was correct.
| JMU | MRSH | |
|---|---|---|
| 409 | Total yards | 414 |
| 270 | Passing yards | 166 |
| 139 | Rushing yards | 248 |
| 20 | First downs | 25 |
| 5-12 | 3rd down | 6-17 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 2-4 |
| 14/24 | Comp/Att | 17/36 |
| 11.3 | Yards per pass | 4.6 |
| 4.0 | Yards per rush | 5.0 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 3-32 | Penalties | 6-55 |
| 28:03 | Possession | 31:57 |
Costliest call
Q3 7:58 MRSH punt on 4th & 3 at JMU 41. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.08 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:16JMUWayne Knight 49 Yd pass from Alonza Barnett III (Morgan Suarez Kick)35–23
- Q4 10:15MRSHLorcan Quinn 23 Yd Field Goal 28–23
- Q3 1:04MRSHTracy Stephens 4 Yd pass from Carlos Del Rio-Wilson (Carlos Del Rio-Wilson Pass to De'Andre Tamarez for Two-Point Conversion)28–20
- Q3 7:47JMUJaylan Sanchez 80 Yd pass from Alonza Barnett III (Morgan Suarez Kick)28–12
- Q2 0:00MRSHLorcan Quinn 52 Yd Field Goal 21–12
- Q2 0:28JMUJordan Fuller 1 Yd Run (Morgan Suarez Kick)21–9
- Q2 4:45MRSHLorcan Quinn 49 Yd Field Goal 14–9
- Q2 8:38JMUWayne Knight 6 Yd Run (Morgan Suarez Kick)14–6
- Q2 13:55MRSHAntwan Roberts 13 Yd Run (Lorcan Quinn PAT failed)7–6
- Q1 8:02JMUBraeden Wisloski 26 Yd pass from Alonza Barnett III (Morgan Suarez Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MRSH Elo 1509, JMU Elo 1801 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MRSH +9.3 (28% to win) — 4.2 points clear of MRSH's market line of +13.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| JMU | MRSH | |
|---|---|---|
| +20.6 (#13) | CORE overall | -2.7 (#71) |
| +5 / -16 | offense / defense | +0 / +3 |
| 3.06 | points / drive | 2.37 |
| 1.42 | allowed / drive | 2.59 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| -3 | pass over expected | -6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →