Joan C. Edwards StadiumConference gameClosing line: JMU +-13.5 · MRSH covered
Sat, Nov 8, 5:00 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JMU | 7 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 35 |
| MRSH | 0 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 23 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (MRSH Elo 1509, JMU Elo 1801) plus home-field advantage. That projects MRSH +9.3 (25% to win) — 4.2 points of value on MRSH versus the market line of +13.5.
JMU up 8 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,588 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
James Madison 35, Marshall 23.
Yes — the model's pick (JMU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had JMU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(07:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Barnett III pass complete deep middle to #0 J.Sanchez caught at MAR34, for 80 yards to the MAR00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:47, 1ST DOWN #5 M.Suarez kick attempt good (H: #11 P.Rea, LS: #47 J.Kennard)
(02:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Barnett III pass complete short left to #3 W.Knight caught at MAR46, for 49 yards to the MAR00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:16, 1ST DOWN #5 M.Suarez kick attempt good (H: #11 P.Rea, LS: #47 J.Kennard)
End of 3rd quarter.
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